tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13378665.post112211358434994058..comments2024-03-01T16:32:41.076+08:00Comments on Sun Bin: 7/22 RMB closing rate: asymmetric intervention?Sun Binhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13378665.post-1122529361185435152005-07-28T15:42:00.000+10:002005-07-28T15:42:00.000+10:00according to sina.comOn Jul/27 PBC intervened one ...according to <A HREF="http://news.sina.com.hk/cgi-bin/news/show_news.cgi?date=2005-07-28&type=headlines&ct=finance&id=1279668" REL="nofollow">sina.com</A><BR/><BR/>On Jul/27 PBC intervened one minute before closing, so that closing price for USD dropped from 8.1091 to 8.1128.<BR/>by 0.04%, even though it is still within the gap. or maybe not (?)<BR/><BR/>also,<BR/>NDF spread is narrowing<BR/>1-yr = 7.76<BR/>3-month = 8.04<BR/><BR/>I will bet for 3-month NDF to stay at 8.11Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13378665.post-1122455497373430132005-07-27T19:11:00.000+10:002005-07-27T19:11:00.000+10:00finally find the PBC web-page of the 'closing rat...finally find the <A HREF="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/huobizhengce/huobizhengcegongju/huilvzhengce/renminbihuilvjiaoyishoupanjiagonggao.asp" REL="nofollow"> PBC web-page </A>of the 'closing rate'<BR/><BR/>July 27<BR/>1美元对人民币8.1128元,<BR/>1欧元对人民币9.7431元,<BR/>100日元对人民币为7.1954元,<BR/>1港元对人民币1.0423元。<BR/><BR/>July 26<BR/>1美元对人民币8.1099元,<BR/>1欧元对人民币9.7709元,<BR/>100日元对人民币为7.2496元,<BR/>1港元对人民币1.0425元。<BR/><BR/>July 25<BR/>1美元对人民币8.1097元,<BR/>1欧元对人民币9.8822元,<BR/>100日元对人民币为7.2421元,<BR/>1港元对人民币1.0425元。Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13378665.post-1122397051770943972005-07-27T02:57:00.000+10:002005-07-27T02:57:00.000+10:00opening price Jul26 (closing on Jul25) according P...opening price Jul26 (closing on Jul25) according PBC's website<BR/><BR/>USD 8.1097 <BR/>HKD 1.0424 <BR/>JPY 7.2550 <BR/>EUR 9.8822Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13378665.post-1122358697455250352005-07-26T16:18:00.000+10:002005-07-26T16:18:00.000+10:00Brad,Thanks for your note. I am still not sure if ...Brad,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your note. <BR/><BR/>I am still not sure if that is true though. But if it is, the new system is influencing the EUR/USD XR though this mechanism. (although the fact that the shifting of the peg away from USD is already taken as shifting demand, hencing driving up EUR valuation)Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13378665.post-1122340264776536672005-07-26T11:11:00.000+10:002005-07-26T11:11:00.000+10:00According to BOC's website, the discrepancy has na...According to <A HREF="http://www.bank-of-china.com/en/common/service.jsp?category=ROOT%3Een%3EInformation+Center%3EMarket+Information%3EBOC+EXCHANGE+RATE+" REL="nofollow">BOC's website</A>, the discrepancy has narrowed today<BR/><BR/>middle price (=?"central parity"")<BR/>USD:810.97<BR/>JPY:7.2421<BR/>EUR:988.22<BR/>HKD:104.25Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13378665.post-1122317051378888042005-07-26T04:44:00.000+10:002005-07-26T04:44:00.000+10:00sun-bin -- nice post, and interesting idea that ch...sun-bin -- nice post, and interesting idea that china wants to build up its euro reserves by buying more euros spot and fewer dollars spot. that avoids the need to intervene in $ and then convert $ to euro in the open market. Not totally implausible.<BR/><BR/>brad setserAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13378665.post-1122151689297555892005-07-24T06:48:00.000+10:002005-07-24T06:48:00.000+10:00Navin,it is quite confusing at this point of time....Navin,<BR/><BR/>it is quite confusing at this point of time. we may have to wait till there is significant change between USD/EUR to verify our different theories on how it operates, maybe more than 3-4 days, even 3-4 weeks may not gather us enough useful data points.<BR/>but that is their purpose. i still think a couple singaporean consultants are sitting in the PBC office for the next few months.<BR/><BR/>8.111 will fluctate or drift. if USD goes above 8.11 then EUR will go under 9.81(or 10.01, i am still a bit confused about what the central parity for EUR is)<BR/><BR/>i am not sure about the trade impact, i guess the export change will be less than 2%. but one will never be able to find out for sure. Because if it is growing at 25-30% if there was no reval, now if we got growth # of 26%, what could we conclude? apparently nothing. there is no control experiment to compare the results.Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13378665.post-1122150901666346162005-07-24T06:35:00.000+10:002005-07-24T06:35:00.000+10:00Sun - bin,This whole thing looks very confusing. H...Sun - bin,<BR/><BR/>This whole thing looks very confusing. Hope after a 3 or 4 days of trading it will all be clear.<BR/><BR/>I wonder if they themselves got it confused/botched and are making it up now.<BR/><BR/>now is it going to be pegged at 8.111 ?<BR/><BR/>Also, my main Q for u is..<BR/><BR/>this being a neglible change, this has a risk of not changing the trading pattern between China and US ?<BR/><BR/>If yes, is this a bad news for trade deficit ? ( a straight 2% increase)<BR/><BR/>Not sure if Goldman Sachs study that 2% revalue will affect 2% exports.. that looks less unlikely ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com