Free trade and geography: the case of the Americas

Jared Diamond tried to explain how the development in the America diverged sine 1500 (original PDF via and archived in Cominganarchy, html here and archived here). Not as revolutionary as "Guns, Germs and Steel". Still a must-read, and definitely better than "Collapse".

There are a few lessons to learn

1) Lee Kuan Yew's theory of air-conditioner is supported

• Third, before the advent of air-conditioning, machinery in tropical factories hadmore frequent breakdowns, and it now incurs higher air-conditioning costs.

2) "Curse" of natural resources

• M&D observed the correlation between natural resources and complacency in creating value by oneself.
  
• This should serve as a warning to the "NCE" (New Commodity-driven 'Economies'), such as Venezuela, Russia, Ecuador and Shanxi Province in China. Look to Dubai for the role model. Nauru for the anti-model.

3) "Land-locked areas tend to be less developed" supports the free trade argument. Though viewing from today's development in transportation and communication technologies, I would argue that the location factor may represent a slightly lower weight.

4) The factors of economic and political system, "native American population density" (-- see below), and cultural heritage (Anglo-Saxon vs Latin) originated from what M&D called as human institutions. Ultimately it is political and economic system.

+ minor critics

• Miller & Diamond used maize as an example to demonstrate low agricultural productivity in tropic America. His argument breaks down if paddi rice instead of maize. IMO economic system (and of course the political stability in the background) is a much larger driver. Because, Vietnam, despite its socialist economic system, produce more rice per acre than, say, South Korea. Because rice can be harvested 3 crops in Vietnam vs only 1 crop in Korea. e.g. Rice/cap in China is 186M Tonnes/1316M=0.141 Tonnes/cap; Vietnam has 36/84=0.429 Tonnes/cap
  
• I am not sure if I agree with the "native American population" theory. After all, native Americans were both wiped out in North American and the Andes. I guess it is "humn institution" that mattered while the history can brought about such 'insitution' was just a anecdote.
  

(THe first map is GDP based on PPP, second is based on forex)
---
I would argue that there is more to the "temperate climate" theory. There is a long winter in temperate climate where human beings do not have to (are prevented from) work the field, hence forcing them to be locked inside a house and think, and innovate. This also explains why civilizations tend to flourish from temperate zone in other civilizations such as North China (instead of South China). The ripple effect is that immigrants from old world prefer to settle in temperate zones in new colonies, whether it is the Americas, or SW Australia, or Southern Africa.

In fact, this is even true for native American civilizations of Aztec and Inca. They are located in high altitude temperate zones. However, it was the geographical remoteness (hindrance to trade) that had kept large scale European immigrants away (and hence trade, technology and 'human institutions').

Therefore, Miller & Diamond's case can be viewed as an academic support for WTO, globalization, and free trade.

Categories:

• geo
• econ

Why Chinese and Korean are so worried about Japan's re-militarization

Over at Coming Anarchy there is a side discussion on why there is very little resentment of America in Vietnam today. Meanwhile, People in China and Korea are still very sensitive of every sign which shows trend of Japan's re-militarization and aggression.

Many explanations have been offered for the case of China and Korea, from humiliation complex, government encouragement, to the widely irresponsible accusation that the mass population was "manipulated" through systematic education and brainwashing. Yeah, those Asian people are just that stupid and manipulatable. (see 88s' comment below)

It strikes me that no one seems to mention the "insecurity complex", which IMO perhaps plays the single most important role. The reason Americans are not concerned about another Pearl Harbor is not because Japan is a democracy. It is because US is stronger militarily, and will still be even if Japan re-militarize. It was overlooked by westerner because it never occurred to them that people do realize Japan is a stronger neighbor to the East Asians. It was conveniently ignored by Chinese and Korean because they do not want to admit it.

Historically, China, Korea did not win the war by themselves. US played the most important role in defeating Japan in WWII (This is not to belittle the efforts of Chinese/Korean 'anti-japan' resistance/guerilla pre-1945, which are important in winning WWII. But the war would have lasted a lot lot longer without US and it is unclear if Japan would have been defeated).

So today's concern and may I say 'fear' of japan's re-militarization is REAL in China and Korea. Because they are not sure if they can defeat the invaders. so they are especially sensitive to every single sign of change. Japan's defense expense was larger than that of Korea and China combines until last 2002. And that is because Japan's hands were tied by the 1% GDP cap (as McArthur wrote into its constitution). Japan also has the superior technology and industrial infrastructure ready for a re-militarization, including nuke expertise and plutonium enough to produce 4500 bombs. China, on the other hand, has 300-500 outdated bombs and just a few nuclear power station to supply the plutonium for purification.

This is fear, and insecurity, blind nationalism cannot explain the widespread reaction from Japan's neighbors.

As for vietnam, they know they have a good chance of defending their country again. They did it once. They are not afraid. Plus a number of other reasons (see below).

So it is "insecurity complex", which plays a much larger role than the so-called 'humiliation complex'. Because, Korean economic achievement should take away any reason for Koreans to feel humiliated. China is still far behind in GDP/cap, despite the growth and trend, so this argument cannot apply to China, yet. But this also means China is much weaker when there is a conflict.

---
Note: Among other explanations for Vietnam's case
1. The life after victory in 1975 was miserable
2. America took many refugees in late 1970s, and these refugees had decent lives abroad, and send money back home, and tell them the life in US
- they also tell that many american people disagreed with the war, and such domestic pressure played important role in ending the war
3. No ‘humiliation complex’ or 'insecurity complex'
4. Recognizing the war was about ideology, not about its people and resources. So the memory of war fades in a few years.

Comparing US in Vietnam 1968-75 with Japan in East Asia in WWII brings about many differences, for example
1. American people treat this part of history with no pretense
2. Atrocity was widely reported in US, but much rarer compared with japan’s. And such cases got treated seriously in US
3. American did not go there to exploit the people or resources

Categories:

• china
• korea
• japan
• vietnam
• pol

Unintended unconventional interpretation, and lessons from Huang incident

When I first saw the video (via LfC), I thought the commentator was being sarcastic on the penalty kick verdict, especially given the boos in the background. I admit I did not know that Mr Huang was (and why he was) such a big fan of Italy. It has never been a great team since 1982. Ignorance on Huang's position provided me with an unconventional interpretation of his elation, his words do fit the alternative interpretation quite well. I just assumed we were all rooting for the underdog, in this case, the Austalian who deservedly so.

It would have been a great tribute to controversial fake falls,bad referees, FIFA conspiracies.......sigh.

Huang's messed up mind was revealed when he confessed his fear of potential competition Australia brings to Asia (i.e. Chinese football team) in the next WC Qualification rounds. The reality is, the further the Aussie advanced to in this WC, the more likely the qualification area Aussie represents will earn more tickets to the WC Final in 2010. i.e. higher chance for China to go to WC final.
Lesson 1: Do not view everything as a zero sum game.

OTOH, if it is so hard getting through the qualification round, there is really no need for China to go to the Final Round.
Lesson 2: Do not blame others for your own problems.

P.S. Related reports compiled by Bingfeng.

Categories:

• ent
• china
• italy
• australia

The earth is quite connected

Japanese created this awesome demonstration of (hypothetically) a meteorite the size of Honshu hits the Pacific 3000km south of Japan (near Guam). You can see how the fireball engulfs the Himalaya, Amazon, and Mediterranean subsequently.
(Transcript of Japanese narration in English here)

Now imagine the red fire are radioactive dusts, this simulates Curzon's case of nuking North Korea. We may not die on the spot. We may not see the radioactive storm. But the dust travels the same path (see below for realistic comparison).

If we take Kaplan seriously, i.e. more than an average reporter, and do something Curzon's suggested. This may be what we get at the end.

One commentator (robert) said it well, "nice idea. and since north korea is in a perfect sealed vacuum both geographically and politically this would clearly not affect every other country around it." I would add the the connectiveness is more than geography, polity and economy. We have all kinds on indirect connection even with the gaps. This video is one way to visualize them.

---
Now the realistic comparison:
1) note that it is almost impossible to find an asteroid of this size. The one that allegedly killed all dinosaur was 10 km wide, i.e. about the size of central Tokyo. That was 65M years ago. This one is 50 times larger in linear scale, and 125,000 larger in volume/weight (and hence energy of impact). It is the size of a Jupiter/Saturn satellite (i.e. its "moon").
2) Chernobyl nuke storm spread as far as western Europe, but it was already quite mile when it reached Poland. However, a nuke strike in Korea may lead to much more detrimental results. Japan and Northern China cannot escape the damage. It is not unlike that Pacific coast of North American will not be able to breathe.

Categories:

• korea
• china
• pol

Surfing Google Earth (ii)

Update, without installing google earth, google map can also be used. just type the coordinates in the same syntax, e.g. "42 39 19 N, 94 10 02 E".


More cool surfing on Google Earth. This one is the banner plus a map of China viewable in the satellite. Inside the map sketch it is a national flag, plus "Motherland in my heart", to the East (note N is point at 8 o'olock in this map) of this is "Protect our country, guard the border". I suspect this was painted during the cold war before USSR collapsed.

Location: On the southern end of China-Kyrgistan border, 50km West of Uluqqat, 200km west of Kashi. The border town is called Simuhana.

---
Update on the previous banners near Hami:
1. Precise size of the banners were measured. e.g. 300mx50m for the banner shown above.
2. It was said (in comment field) these were painted for airplane pilot training purposes (by "No 8 Pilot College" of the airforce), to assist them to find the small airport when they land. You can see the airport on google earth near of the banner in the middle of the cluster. In 1960s we did not have GPS/etc.

---
Other cool stuffs:

In People's Square, Chengdu, you can also see the banner "Happy New Year". (and many company logos on top of buildings we can see as we land in US airports, though these are all smaller than the Cultural Revolution banners above)


Coordinates on previous post:
42 32'33.95" N 94 19'36.80" e ---为人民服务
42 39'18.85" N 94 10'00.80" e ---毛主席万岁！
42 27'12.08" N 94 08'49.36" e ---排除万难去争取胜利
42 39'33.30" N 94 16'00.59" e ---只争朝夕
42 27'40.95" N 94 14'36.80" e ---向斗争中学习

Coordinates for new cool stuff!

Simuhana coordinates above
39 41'43.47" N 73 55'37.17" e ---祖国在我心中 in China map (to the east of this: 卫国戍边)
39 43'34.55"N 73 56'59.58"E --- 祖国万岁 Long Live Motherland (to the NW there is a small string of characters too small to recognize, anyone venture a guess?)
39 43'08.75"N 73 57'14.16"E --- 斯姆哈纳欢迎您
44 18n,86 39e (距石河子48－49公里) --- mechanical agriculture in Shihezi, west of Urumqi

Shangri-la Buddhist script
香格里拉-松赞林寺 27.86808444N, 99.69783333E (Songzanlin Temple, name of lama temple in Tibetan and Chinese, Shangr-La, Yunnan
40°21'15.41",116°00'24.21" Badaling Great Wall

Interesting points in other countries
32.165978,-110.854884 ---Davis Monthan AFB, US
18.5784602315, 73.9199699249 --- Sukhoi 30 MKI, India
38°43'14.73"N, 121°15'23.64"E --- Chinese submarine in Boahi Bay

34.0833816528, 139.528656006 -- Miyake-jima, smoking volcano in Japan
53 31'54.33N,1 21'22.63W --- "The signs" A635/Darfield, South of Leeds, England
14°41'11.61"S,75°10'23.26"W --- Nazca lines, Peru
51°52'17.78"N,0°34'0.13"W --- "apparent airplane collision" Edlesborough, SW of Luton, England
69°15'32.22"N 33°14'17.11"E --- Capsized ship, Saida Bay, N of Murmansk, Russia
51°4'47.1"N6°59'18"E --- burning car, on A3 autobahn near Gieslenberg, N of Leverkusen, Germany,
47.62778500/-122.24189100 Bill Gates' House, Medina, WA, USA

37°39'56.22"N116° 1'30.90"W Mysteriuos triangle (inscribing circles), Nevada, 300km east of Yosemite
37°50'38.81"N116°43'53.01"W Underground Nuke or Nuke waste storagr(?), Nevada, 250km N of Las Vegas
40.09505600/128.34080800 Alleged N Korea nuke facilities, Soho-ri, between Hongwon and Sinpo
40°45'52.01"N 74° 0'1.23"W USS ENterprise at Manhattan west side

48°52'26.79"N,2°17'42.66"E --- Arc de Triumph
48°48'17.76"N,2° 7'18.24"E --- Palace Verseilles
41°53'24.32"N,12°29'31.16"E --- Colisuem, Roma
29°58'43.41"N,31° 8'5.06"E --- Pyramid
29°58'31.81"N,31° 8'15.10"E --- Sphinx
27.9782502279, 86.9221941736 --- 珠穆朗玛峰(Mount Everest)
22°57'5.72"S,43°12'36.65"W Rio de Janeiro, Jesus Statue
3° 3'53.24"S,37°20'56.85"E Kilimanjaro, snow cap in equator. (Note Al Gore's pictures are midleading. He took pcitures from different times in the year)
51°10'44.32"N,1°49'43.38"W --- Stone Henges, UK
13° 09'48.07"S,72°32'44.69"W --- Machu Picchu, Peru

Categories:

• geog
• map

Light viewing: to the fellow Asian soccer fans

We all make mistakes, cheer up, we still have 2010.


We still have these moments

Categories:

• sports
• asia
• korea
• japan

Picture of the week: panda hugger from the black hole

Not this panda hugger.

He was radiated from the black hole, or event horizon, maybe?

The first time I am impressed by China Daily's editor.

• Before an audience of 500 at a seminar in Beijing, the wheelchair-bound celebrity cosmologist said, "I like Chinese culture, Chinese food and above all Chinese women. They are beautiful."
• - Accompanied by this great shot.
  

I just think the look is funny. I have great respect for this physicist.

---
And this is the picture of a panda slugger aka "Anakin Skywalker"

Categories:

• china
• science
• ent

Case studies on strategy: Another approach to the Taiwan scandal/presidential recall mess?

One of the key tools in strategy formulation is 'leverage'. Leveraging means mobilizing resources that you would not normally be able to command, or even your enemy's resources, to achieve your objectives. The other is to choose the battleground where you are most likely to win, by tricking or forcing the opponent into there.

It seems that the descendants of Sun Zi and followers in Taiwan know this very well. As an illustration, there are two blogs in Taiwan that got the essence of Sun Zi.

----
Background (Also here, and update here)

While Jujuflop pointed out the potential 'legal' mess in a non-confidence vote in Taiwan, there has been more innovative solutions proposed around the internet.

Before we go into it, let's clarify a few minor points

• Let's note Chen himself is not guilty nor even charged at this point. Chances are that he is clean himself. Whether he silently permitted the alleged corruption or secretly conceal the alleged crime (of his wife and son-in-law) is anybody's guess. However, his inability to smell the fishy signs and act proactively before the media caught them is not something any politician should be proud of, given various allegations and rumours preceding the explosion of the scandal and how wide-spread the charges are.
• The great Kim Dae-Jung of Korea, who had not only led Korea out of the Asian Financial Crisis, but emerge even stronger, had to resign when his sons got into similar corruption scandal. Note Kim resigned only after the sons were sentenced. Chen's son-in-law is still "presumed innocent". Note also that there is no material difference in whether 'son-in-law' or 'son' commited the crime. They both used their relationship with the president for profiteering. It is how the 'leaders' act and react that alters the voters' impression.
• Let's also note even the son-in-law, though very likely to be convicted of multiple crimes, is still waiting for a verdict. Even though there are theories speculating that it is hard to convict him of these kinds of crimes in Western legal systems, in Asian courts OJ Simpson will not get away, same can be said about Chao
• "Keywords" posted a nice critic on the notorious partisan media in Taiwan. See how far the partisan editors are willing to twist facts for their own political agenda. (The majority of "English teacher blogs" in Taiwan are even worse, but they are blogs that represent personal opinions, not MSM.) This is why Taiwan's road to practicing democracy still has a long way to go.

In view of this, the recall is widely considered as immature from a tactic perspective for opposition KMT. However, it can also be viewed as a prelude to the non-confidence vote of the cabinet, and hence an integral part of that grander manuever (which makes more sense). In any case, one should not let the complication of the process stop him from doing the right thing (assuming it is a right thing). Therefore, I would argue that the legal complication jujuflop introduced is an issue independent of whether KMT should go for "no-confidence" vote. Because, if, hypothetically, Chen himself is involved in corruption, and still manages to make that a case of Blue-Green duel, shall KMT go for no confidence vote (or consider the same question if switched the role of Chen with Ma and Blue with Green)?

Therefore, all we are talking about is whether "no-confidence vote" is a valid tactic or not. Because whether it is right to do so is up to the decision of every individual voter, not the politicians, nor commentators like us. And they will tell us with their votes.

• Some argue that it may not be, because it is extremely unclear whether Blue will get 2/3 seats in such scenario, though it is sure that PFP will be further marginalized

---
Now, Let's go back to the 2 case studies. View these as purely academic cases, not as my endorsement to their causes.

1) Another approach: choose the battleground to fight

A deep Blue (be warned) blogger Pifeng proposed recalling the Legislative Yuan members in northern Taiwan, where Blue voters are dominant. He noted that

• It only takes 20,000 signature to recall a LY member
  
• And if they chooses the battleground carefully, i.e., in Blue strongholds in the north, then all the Green LY member might be recalled
• Once about 25 pro-Bian legislators are out, it is then very likely for the anti-Bian team to gather over 2/3 votes in LY.
  
• If such approach is voiced as a credible threat, some of the LY members in question might switch side, hence saving the troubles of the recall actions
  

By choosing the right battleground, the chance of getting the required 2/3 vote is greatlky enhance (vs a general LY re-election)

The assumption here is: people are firmly behind the recall, which seems to be very unclear as now it has been turned into a partisan fight. I am still not quite sure what the real poll data look like yet. The other issue is that the Green camp may do the same in the South, though they may not get votes from the centrists this time. And if they do it, it is precisely the situation a 'no-confidence' vote would lead to.

2) Leveraging: get the middle and light green

A classical story of leveraging is "Borrow the Eastward Wind and Borrow Arrow Legends" in Romance of The Three Kingdom.

This is from a (self-claimed) centrist who has been critical of both Green and Blue. He is as critical on Soong as he is on Bian. However, today the deep Green may label him 'light Blue' because he is definitely a supporter of 'recall'.

His ideas essentially take the centrist path, maximizing support from all camps and turning DPP's weapons against itself. To maximize support, he argues Ma needs to leverage support from the middle and light green like himself and those slightly (or considerably) greener than himself. The key insight (surprise!) is that Ma does not need to care about the deep Blue and should not be bothered about short-term dip in poll. What he lost in these polls are the deep Blue supporters who would vote for him in 2008 blindly. Therefore, Ma made a big mistake when he danced to Soong's tunes. Instead, Ma should switch back to the color-indifferent (or "purple") appeal, and find common ground with these people. To turn DPP's old tricks against itself, he proposed the China card, i.e. neutralize DPP's usual divisive China threat tactics and compare the scandal with that of the mainland in 1989

• 大家再想想，每次選舉時，陳水扁都是用哪些策略來打擊泛藍？第一，黑金牌：指的就是兩蔣時代留下的國民黨黨產，以及李登輝時代以劉泰英為掌櫃，至今仍逍遙法外的黑金集團。第二，愛台灣牌：用出生地來分化族群，用外省人當原罪來打擊對手。第三，中共牌：抹紅對手為中共同路人，把所有對他不利的事實都塑造成是對岸的統戰陰謀。這三張王牌自陳水扁當年從諸位泛綠大佬出線以來，每戰必用，每用必勝，已經變成他私人調兵遣將用的「兵符」了。陳水扁之所以還能再度發起本土政權保衛戰，手上靠的也就是這三支能替他招來群眾的兵符。...

• 最後是「中共牌」。長久以往，民進黨就處心積慮地要讓國親和中共扯上關係。而泛藍從來也沒有辦法成功地反擊這張牌，充其量只能冷凍這張牌，不去回應。現在大好的時機來了。我建議泛藍上街時，請務必打出悲壯的六四天安門紀念主題曲，因為我們每個人都是貪污扁政府下的「民主烈士」。這首歌曲實在非常應景，面對全台大爆料，我們可以看到泛綠政客的反應，的確就是：「

  蒙上眼睛，就以為看不見(貪污)；
  摀上耳朵，就以為聽不到(抗議)；
  而真理在心中，創痛在胸口；
  還要忍多久？還要沉默多久！！！

  這首歌在全球華人的記憶中，所唱出的都是足以讓人握拳到滲血的憤怒，如果能打造新裝與罷免活動相結合，遊行的時候播放也好，當成揭發弊案廣告短片的背景音樂也好，那麼所產生的效應將是排山倒海。因為扁政府一旦與共黨政權畫上等號，這道兵符將會乖乖地落到台灣人民的手中，回頭全部起來造他的反！

• ...如同馬主席所言。罷免案，我們要的只是要陳水扁下台，呂秀蓮繼任，我們不是要清光民進黨，更不是要搶奪政權，沒有必要發起台灣藍綠人民互相對抗的焦土作戰。我們要的是更多曾被阿扁愚弄的人民與我們站在一起，而不是為了激起更多含淚保衛貪污政權的台灣人民來與我們對立。三國演義中，曹操兵矢連營數十里，孔明草船借箭，不費吹灰之力得矢十萬，利用曹操的箭來回擊曹操，成為佳話。馬主席、宋主席，現在東風已起，你們準備好去接收陳水扁的那三道兵符了嗎？

To be fair, the corruption (and the reluctance to tackle corruption) in mainland 17-20 years ago was definitely a lot more serious than what Taiwan faces today. So I am not sure if many will take that analogy. But it is a good trick. More importantly, his ideas of leveraging are good demonstration of what good strategist should be thinking about.

In fact, the mainland government has been very cooperating these days. e.g., by staying away from the politics on the island, and even go as far as censoring reports and commentary about the scandal in mainland. (I believe many observers mis-read that as fearing democracy and criticism on its own corruption).

The last lesson on strategy, it helps one to see the big picture if one can step back and take a by-standers' point of view. Because it is usually the neutral parties who are able to think rationally. The centrist/light-Blue blogger is able to see this because he can observe objectively.

---
(Update) Wow, this is fun. Great drama to watch. Chen Shui Bian has just opened a new can of worms. He said, "I did not have sexual relatioship with that woman". Sorry, what he actually said was,

• Mr Chen claimed the First Lady had never directly received gift vouchers in exchange for support in a struggle over the management of the Sogo department store as alleged by the opposition.
• He also said "I asked her again if she has met with merchant Chen You-Hao and her answer was negative". (The allegation of meeting Chen You-Hao is a separate case of political contribution) The remark drew immediate response from DPP legislator Shen and Chen YH himself.
• Chen also chose to speak Minnan dialect in his speech, wooing deep-Green audience who are already supporting him without reservation, but alienating the middle Hakka voters. A decision he will regret in future.
  

The recall tactic alone might have caused more damage than we had thought.

Update 6/21 It is hard to find neutral commentaries in the polarized media in Taiwan. Apple Daily and Jiang Chunnan are the rarities. But it seems Jiang is on vacation or Jimmy Lai has received some instruction from his higher-up again (I hope this is only a joke).
Anyway, I will make compromise by looking at the dissenting voice within the 2 camps. Here is from DPP legislator Lin Cho-shui (more radical than CSB in promoting independence. e.g. He tried to lay all the blame of the scandal on the (alleged) strategic mistake of the Blue camp. He also denied it was the ethnic divisive drive DPP took that "eased" CSB's crisis. So keep in mind his deep green biase and his conflict of interests in intra-DPP power struggle). But interesting to read and to see the other end of the spectrum.

大廝殺 只問陣營不論是非
林濁水

為了一個一定不會通過的罷免案，朝野動員群眾大對決，整個社會陷入歇斯底里的對立之中。
click to read full article cached

罷免總統，動作雖然大，但是卻是體制內的行為，體制內的國會既已經在處理中，若要動員當在立法院通過後，為什麼就大張旗鼓舉辦一連串的群眾動員，藍軍的解釋是要鼓舞社會對罷免案的支持。假使目的真是如此的話，那麼從民意的變遷來看，效果其實適得其反。在趙建銘收押時，罷免的支持度最高，有4成5，但目前反而略略下滑到4成出頭；相反的，反對罷免的由3成出頭上升到4成，雙方旗鼓已經快相當了。 (Not sure where the sources are. China Times poll has 43% for recall vs 34% against)

台灣意識成社會主流
對這現象，一種說法是扁嫂病危，陳幸妤思夫、小安安想爸爸...等親情牌奏效。不過這解釋是有問題的，因為在這一段期間，社會對第一家庭有不好印象的，大幅上升到近6成。
另一種說法是，本土社團強烈打本土牌，訴求保扁才能保護本土政權，鞏固了基本教義派的支持，但這種說法的弱點也顯而易見，因為本土台灣主體意識雖然已成為社會主流，但基本教義派群眾目前還沒高達4成。
根據最近一項政大作的民眾認同調查，認同自己是中國人創新低只有5.1％，這可算是統派的基本教義派；認同自己既是台灣人也是中國人的43.5％，算是不統不獨的中間派；認同自己是台灣人的高達46.4％。但這些恐怕不能認為都是基本教義派，基本教義派大抵接近3成。 (Again, there is probably minor biase in these numbers. But the trend he quoted is quite true)

民調映民眾矛盾心理
不久前對陳總統和民進黨的支持度掉都掉到兩成，這可以說連基本教義派都流失了，但在和最近罷免案一起做的民調中，陳總統的支持度已經拉到近3成，對備受批評的第一家庭有好印象的也近3成，兩個相當的數字都說明基本教義派民眾回頭來支持扁，但其實從在扁滿意度只有兩成時，反罷免的仍有三成，表示基本教義派再不滿意扁時的3成比目前反罷免的仍少了1成。由此可見反罷免的不只是基本教義派，連相當比例的中間人士都反罷免了。罷免和反罷免加起來高達8成，可以說台灣民眾高度向兩方集中的現象，而其餘不表態的只剩不到兩成，這些與其說主要是中間派，不如說多是對政治素不關心的人士。
反罷免的人遠多過滿意扁的，而且成上升趨勢，說明了民眾的矛盾心理，不少人既不滿阿扁，但對藍軍的罷免也反對。這些人除了不希望罷免帶來政治的不安之外，恐怕不少人是不能接受藍軍以清廉、正義自居。尤其在馬英九透過藍軍立委和縣市長發動罷免更令人側目：這些人中不少自己有案在身，是弊案主角，卻倒過來指控阿扁，而扁並非自己涉案，涉及的是家屬、親信。
對本土基本教義派訴諸「本土政權」最有動員力，至於對中間人士，恐怕藍軍愈動員，愈顯得雙重標準才是他們反罷免的理由。對他們最犀利的廣告是在電視上不斷重播馬統帥替台東縣長助選說的一段話：「罪不及妻孥，道理就這麼簡單」。為了鞏固自己的政權，「罪不及妻孥」講得理直氣壯，為了打擊政敵，動員前是說等到扁有直接證據，動員後則說不必有直接證據；動員前對趙建銘案說要哀矜勿喜，動員後則說要給他死得很難看。這種做法無非是只論陣營不論是非，也談不上前後一貫，中間人士當然怕怕，所以愈動員效果愈反動員。
(One thing I agree with Lin, is that Ma's failing to detach himself from corrupted factors in KMT, e.g. Taitung, backfires)

冒進代價是藍軍受傷
罷免是宋先發動的，宋目前的作戰目標在搶奪深藍基本盤，取得基本盤才能在藍軍中立於不敗地位，至於淺藍、中間的流失不是目前計較的。深藍既被挑動，馬感到威脅，於是兩人比冒進。其代價則是整體藍軍受傷，這猶其次，怎樣冷卻社會陷入歇斯底里的對殺，才是目前最重要的課題。

Categories:

• taiwan
• pol

Al Queda's strategy

(oops, should be Al Qaeda)

Sun Zi said, "Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle. " 故曰：知己知彼，百战不贻；不知彼而知己，一胜一负；不知彼不知己，每战必败。

via Coming Anarchy comes this (alleged) Zarqawi’s playbook

...The question remains, how to draw the Americans into fighting a war against Iran?

It is not known whether American is serious in its animosity towards Iraq [you mean Iran? - Sun Bin], because of the big support Iran is offering to America in its war in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

Hence, it is necessary first to exaggerate the Iranian danger and to convince America and the west in general, of the real danger coming from Iran, and this would be done by the following:

1. By disseminating threatening messages against American interests and the American people and attribute them to a Shiite Iranian side.
2. By executing operations of kidnapping hostages and implicating the Shiite Iranian side.
3. By advertising that Iran has chemical and nuclear weapons and is threatening the west with these weapons.
4. By executing exploding operations in the west and accusing Iran by planting Iranian Shiite fingerprints and evidence.
5. By declaring the existence of a relationship between Iran and terrorist groups (as termed by the Americans).
6. By disseminating bogus messages about confessions showing that Iran is in possession of weapons of mass destruction or that there are attempts by the Iranian intelligence to undertake terrorist operations in America and the west and against western interests.

Let us hope for success and for God’s help.

Read the whole play book here.

Surprise! If you read Sun Zi, you would try to put yourself into their shoes before you act. Then, it is not difficult to see this is quite natural given the situation they are in, and perhaps the only path that makes sense to them.

We can question on the authenticity of the book and debate about conspiracy theory. Rather, the appropriate question should be, "Does this strategy make sense for them?" If it does, it does not make a difference whether it is authentic or not. Then we need to ask ourselves, "What would be the response (to such potential chain reaction) that would make sense for us (=the civilized world)?"

I thought such a playbook existed before Osama bin Laden went into hiding. Now it appears that Al Zarqawi only did a global search for Iraq and replace the word by Iran. That is why there seems still to be some typos in the book. What a bum! so lazy that he didn't even thought about leaving the house when he heard the planes approaching, or try to create his own playbook. As to the world leader of Team America, I don't know what to say.

New Google earth beta: better resolution

Download new Google Earth Beta here. More user-friendly controls, better resolution in many locations. e.g.

Cultural Revolution remnant mega-slogasn seen from space - 100-150 km ESE of Hami 哈密 City (N of Yandun烟墩), Xinjiang
(You can enter latittude/longitude coordinates shown in local left corner of the pictures to "fly" directly to the locations, use space to separate minutes/seconds, and comma to separate longitude from latitude)

More pictures with coords can be found at here, enjoy the treasure hunt.

Precise locations of each slogan shown here


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In Spratly, Vietnam has built many airports through aggressive land-filling, before our friends in Taiwan started debating on whether to build it or not.

(Note there is a boat on the west side of the island)
More pictures with coords can be found at here.

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Update:
1. Precise size of the banners were measured. e.g. 300mx50m for the banner shown above.
2. It was said (in comment field) these were painted for airplane pilot training purposes (by "No 8 Pilot College" of the airforce), to assist them to find the small airport when they land. You can see the airport on google earth near of the banner in the middle of the cluster. In 1960s we did not have GPS/etc.

Update: It is located in the east of Carmel Circle, which belongs to Red Star #2 Ranch of the Contruction Corp.

Categories:

• map
• geog