Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦) as a strategy - is China a threat? (I)

Fareed Zakaria in Newsweek made a great observation in China's strategy on Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), literally translated as "Hide brightness, nourish obscurity" (see Mike Pillsbury for a good introduction in English, but some of his conclusions would be argued against in part II of this blog) or "Bide our time and focus on building ourselves". Zakaria also praised the wisdom of Lee Kuan Yew's comments on education for China's next generation, whom he worries may not understand the importance of being humble. LKY's deep insight contrast sharply with the views from some low ranking officials in China and many western observers (perhaps including himself) who seem to have missed one of LKY's points. LKY's comment has two fold meanings, about popular education / indoctrination of TGYH and about the need to ensure that TGYH will be adopted as the long term strategy in future generations.

I googled the word TGYH and found a few extremely insightful essays on the issue from China's respected strategists (plus amateur interpretations by writers such as Liu Xiaobo, who is not a strategist). Unfortunately these are mostly written in Chinese. In Part II, I will recap the key point of an excellent discussion in this link here by Xiao Dong, and another by Wang Yusheng, who in my opinion truly understand the essence of TGYH. I hope this view would help those who are worried about "China threat" to understand the implication. Even if Chinese GDP/cap is on par with the Japan, which is at least 25 to 50 years away from today, they argued that it still serves China's best interests to remain TGYH.

First, an approximate translation (with a little of my elaboration) of the synopsis of the TGYH (see link of Pillsbury's description in English for some background information) strategy, as laid out by Deng Xiaoping in early 1990s (see the end for Deng's original quote in Chinese ) -- the basic idea of Deng is to "mind our own business and be humble in world affairs"

1. avoid leading or forming faction in any international conflict, stay neutral in all circumstance, "Don't stick your head out"
2. do not try to lead an opinion in international politics, do not try to represent any interest group, stay away from any sphere of influence
3. avoid any trouble, controversy or antagonism in world politics, be humble but try not be humiliated, and even accept minor humiliation if you have to, "yield on small issues" in every possible occasion
4. concentrate on economic development
5. focus on forming a friendly relationship with ALL countries in the world, irrespective of the ideology of the countries you deal with. i.e., forget the old "party ideology"

Note Deng's instruction was very specific, perhaps he feared his successors may not able to implement the strategies correctly. Note also that Deng's instructions depart from the common proverbial connotation with Guo Jian (越王勾践) and Liu Bei (刘备), which implies that being humble is a means, an indirect way to realize ambition in future (Pillsbury got it wrong here, because he failed to notice the significance of Deng's elaboration of TGYH). Deng probably needed to choose a proverb with a connotation to ambition so that his successors will be motivated to follow, and he cleverly defined his true vision in the five principles above. Deng's hope was that by the time his great grand successors are ready to think about being ambitious they would have been benefited from being humble so much that they would then recognize that TGYH should serve as the 'permanent' strategy like Xiao Dong stated in his great essay (LKY, himself a great visionary, obviously understood Deng's intention very well). Deng saw the world of his time as one 'tending towards greater relaxation' in which 'peace and development are the main themes'.

I hope the above description and links explain the TGYH strategy, the history and the present situation well enough for us to proceed to the discussions in Part II. i.e. is China a threat, or will China ever become a threat to world peace? or to US? The question that has also attracted discussion and hearing in the US Congress.

(to be continued here)

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the original in the above essay copied below, other discussions can be found here and a generic search result here, where you can see the majority of opinions.
中国没有理由放弃“韬光养晦”
　　新华网2005年6月20日消息 美国侨报近日发表萧冬的文章，说随着国力的增长﹐中国将更偏重“有所作为”﹐但绝不应放弃“韬光养晦”。同时﹐也要向世界表明﹐“韬光养晦”不是一种“诡道”﹐不是一个“阴谋”﹐不是权宜之计﹐而视为一种“正道”，一种立身之本﹐不仅应行之于中国崛起之前﹐而且还会行之于崛起之后。
　　近来﹐中国对外一改过去模糊﹐柔弱的作法﹐在重大问题上强硬出击﹐明快应对。继对台推出《反分裂国家法》﹐邀请连宋大陆行后﹐对日本﹐吴仪断然拒会小泉﹐明确表态在日德印巴入常案上投反对票。对美国﹐强力顶住迫人民币升值的压力﹐在纺织品等贸易战中﹐也针锋相对，据理力争。对此﹐有人欢呼﹐也有人疑惑。有论者说﹐中国将终结“韬光养晦”﹐进入一个大声说“不”的时代。
　　对中国“韬光养晦”政策含义的理解﹐见仁见智。最近的一个例子﹐就是据报导﹐美国五角大楼中国军力报告的起草人﹐“中国通”白邦瑞(Mike Pillsbury)曾宣称﹐战国时代越王勾践“韬光养晦”，最后灭了吴王夫差。如果今天不遏制中国，30年后，美国也会像吴王夫差一样完蛋。白邦瑞是以兵不厌诈的“诡道”来解释“韬光养晦”，以弱肉强食的“霸道”来管窥中国的行为。
　　这并不奇怪﹐因为﹐在西方文明中﹐“霸道”的观念根深蒂固。从马基雅弗利(Machiavelli)﹐摩根索(Morgenthau)﹐到米尔雪默(Mearsheimer)﹐这些主导了西方主流意识的现实主义者﹐无不信奉以力服人﹐明确把“利益最大化”作为国家的最高利益。
　　在历史上﹐两次世界大战﹐美苏冷战﹐乃至近年的局部战争﹐不论打着什么旗号﹐背后无不是以争夺和保卫霸权为最终目标。抱着这些观念来看中国崛起﹐当然会对“中国威胁论”念念不忘，对“韬光养晦”如芒刺在背。
　　西方有学者认为﹐中国在近代所受到的来自西方的苦难与屈辱太深太重﹐使中国人产生了一种“受害者”情结﹐因此生怕中国强盛起来后﹐象越王勾践那样“复仇”，“雪耻”。殊不知﹐对于中国人而言﹐正道是“王道”﹐而不是霸道。
　　《孙子兵法》中除了说“兵者﹐诡道也”﹐要“以奇胜”外﹐更提倡“以正合”。霸道以力服人﹐王道以德服人。霸道追求国家权力最大化﹐对外扩张。王道追求天下大同﹐对外协和。如孟子说：“以力假仁者霸，霸必有大国。以德行人者王，王不待大。”(孟子-公孙丑上)。追求霸道的列强﹐可以建显赫帝国﹐无边功业﹐但“城头变换大王旗”﹐当年霸主今安在﹖而追求王道的中国﹐历时几千年﹐依然屹立在东方。因此﹐王道是内敛的﹐而不是外张的。是宽容的﹐而不是排它的﹐这也是“韬光养晦”的应有之意。
　　换言之﹐“韬光养晦”应是走向王道的姿态﹐而不是走向霸道的掩护。越王勾践的卧薪尝胆﹐刘备的“巧借闻雷来掩饰”﹐其中的“隐忍”与“诡道”﹐并非是“韬光养晦”的全部含义和精神。当然﹐需要指出的是﹐王道必须建立实力上的﹐落后只有任人宰割。
　　近代中国百年积弱，差点成为别人的“王道乐土”。而在汉唐之时﹐声教播于四?o同时国力之盛也举世无双。王道也必须建立在智慧上的﹐不能象宋襄公那样﹐行愚不可及的“仁义”。也不是该出手时不出手。只不过在出手之时﹐先考虑好收手的方式。
　　因此﹐回到今天现实﹐中国没有放弃韬光养晦的理由。其一﹐中国经济结构的深层矛盾，社会阶层的潜在冲突，都使中国没有放弃“韬光养晦”的本钱。对中国经济发展的成果﹐对外界沸沸扬扬的“中国热”﹐一定要头脑冷静。其二﹐在对外关系中，根据实际情况，采用积极主动和明确的对策，并不一定是放弃“韬光养晦”。其判断的底线是，对外出击时不强出头﹐在现有的国际政治经济秩序中谋求中国的国家利益﹐而不是一厢情愿要建立自己的“新秩序”。在对日美关系中﹐应有理有节，斗而不破﹐留有余地。
　　随着国力的增长﹐中国将更偏重“有所作为”﹐但绝不应放弃“韬光养晦”。同时﹐也要向世界表明﹐“韬光养晦”不是一种“诡道”﹐不是一个“阴谋”﹐不是权宜之计﹐而视为一种“正道”，一种立身之本﹐不仅应行之于中国崛起之前﹐而且还会行之于崛起之后。

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The 5 principles Deng Xiaoping instructed to the Chinese leadership for the implementation of TGYH in early 1990s as below
-- source (note the author in this source understands TGYH a bit differently)
第一，不当"头"，自然也不结盟；
第二、不打旗，不充当某种力量和某个群体的"代言人"；
第三、不主动招惹是非。要不卑不亢，沉着应付，不搞对抗；
第四、集中精力发展经济。
第五、致力于和所有的国家发展友好关系，不再以意识形态来划线。