It is from Feng and Mason study. "The Effect of China's One-Child Family Policy after 25 Years". The objective is to study the effect of population aging on China's productive population and retiree/dependents. The 3 graphs belows shows the profile of working population and supported people by age.
- "reallocation to children" means the amount of production used to support children; similarly for elderly. (see pp19 of the research for legends and explanation)
- AY is the average of age of production population (mean of the blue curve)
- AC is the average of age of consumption population (mean of the pink curve)
- You can see that AC moves from 28 (1982) to 33 (2000) to 44 (2005), and it overtook AY a few years before 2005. That means the dependent population shift from children into elderly.
Update: The population profile (2000 curve) dips again at age=10-30 range (i.e. those born in 1970-1990, this time much wider and smoother. I am not sure if I have the full explanation. One possibility is the one-child policy started in early 1980s, the other is the secondary effect of the crack of 1959-1961, because there are comparatively less people to give brith to the next generation in 1980-1995. However, the secondary effect shoule be very small, i.e. 30%x3 years spread through 15-20 years means 5-6% lower than the interpolated line.