2006-01-07

Panda economics, panda science and critical reading

Apple Daily Taiwan reported,

  • Chen Yumin, the Director of Taiwan Animal Society Research Association, said, “according to the research by US Fish and Wildlife Service from 1938 to 1988, 106 pandas have been bred through artificial insemination, only 32 survived for over 1 year.” Chen went on to “conclude”, “This shows that artificially inseminated panda does not work, and Taiwan should not accept panda from China mainland
  • Annual cost to keep a pair of panda is NT$18.68M, all the related research funds, education materials for the public and other expenses are included (estimated and budgeted by Taipei Zoo)
  • Agriculture Commission need to evaluate the feasibility and will deliver a decision by March 23 (note: reasons given include suitability of Taiwan weather and WWF compliance), adding all the bureaucracy the earliest the panda could arrive is around July and August.

Panda science (and pseudoscience)

Apple Daily is a rarity in Taiwan, in that its reports are usually unbiased. But I am not sure if its reporters are, or if they are capable to being a critical reader. In particular, I am amazed how Chen can call himself a scientist. Here is why

  • Anyone who uses data from 1938 (or even 1988) for artificial animal breeding must be totally ignorant of the development biological science in the past few decades, or maliciously manipulating the data.
  • Here are more recent statistics: “The Wolong center inaugurated in 1983 has welcomed 90 baby pandas born through artificial insemination, 77 of whom have survived…Major breakthroughs have been reported after the 1990s. Artificial fertilization gave birth to nine baby pandas in 2000, 12 in 2001, 10 in 2002 and 15 in 2003...Last year, China's 30 artificially-fertilized giant pandas produced 12 offspring but only nine survived… Artificial insemination gave birth to 25 baby pandas [in fall 2004], of which 21 have survived, a record number since China first took the challenge in the 1960s.
  • So the relevant survival rate, as #16 and #19, which are designated to go to Taiwan, were born in Wolong, is 77/90=86%. The survival rate for 2005 is 84%.
  • The pseudo-scientist Chen brought up something even more irrelevant, using the one-year survival rate, because both pandas (#16 and #19) are 1.5 year healthy now
The Business case

The ultimate question is: could the additional revenue brought to the zoo justify the incremental costs in keeping the panda? Here are some benchmarking:
  • "Zoo Atlanta received 708,700 visitors. Those numbers spiked to 1,037,200 in 2000, after the arrival of the pandas,” That is 46% hike in the first year. 329k additional visitor would generate $3.29M additional revenue if one assumes $10/visitor on average (2005 price is $17/$12). That is NT100M. This does not include additional sales in memorabia.
    • Atlanta has to donate $1M to get the panda for 1 year, while Taiwan does not have to pay at all
    • The increase in the following year should be smaller, but it should still be a major attraction for tourists
  • “The National Zoo's pandas, female Mei Xiang and male Tian Tian, went on display in January 2001. Before they arrived, National Zoo officials predicted that they would draw an additional 400,000 visitors a year to the free Smithsonian Institution park, and bring $1.2 million more in food, drink and souvenir sales…Sales of food, drink and souvenirs nearly doubled -- from $5.5 million in 2000 to $10.3 million in 2001” – Washington Post
  • Ching Mai Zoo in Thailand recorded triple admission number after loaning 2 pandas for 6 months, incremental revenue was over THB27M (NTD22M). It was claimed that the overall economic impact for the pandas on Ching Mai was about THB 725M (NTD580M), including tourist expenses such as hotel and meal.
  • A recent study commissioned by the Chinese government found that a properly managed ecotourism program in the Wolong Panda Reserve could generate between $29 and $42 million per year.” - Ecotourism: Panda's Paladin or Bane?
How does this apply to Taipei Zoo?
  • In 2000, Taipei Zoo’s admission is 5.7M, another estimate has it at 3.5M. The admission price is very lower in Taipei ($2 adult, $1 child). On average, the annual admission revenue is $5.25M. A 46% increase would mean $2.4M or NT$77M (total over 5M attendence);
  • alternatively, a NT$10 increase in ticket (supported by the new pandas) would mean NT$35M net increase in revenue, or NT$17M in net profit, if one assume the same volume and cost of NTD18M
  • It was also estimated that, if among the visitors 1M people purchase memorabia at the average of NT$100 per person, then 10% loyalty would produce additional NT$10M for Taipei Zoo (This business plan is quite amusing, it assumed $1M donation to Panda Fund in China and is still profitable. However, the plan is quite aggressive and it even contemplates selling “Panda Sex Video”)
Panda bureaucracy/bickering

As for what Taiwan’s Agriculture Commission need to evaluate, see this from US FWS for reference. I do not see the excuses panda-politicizers provide. One should also note that the weather in HK is just as humid and hot as that in Taiwan (San Diego is dry and hot), and the 2 pandas had been living happily for over 6 years in Ocean Park.

Conclusion: it is not difficult to see the economics works very well, especially if China is not asking for donation to the Panda Fund (unlike the case for the US zoos). It also shows that all the excuses rejecting the pandas are very lame ones.


11 comments:

Yuentze said...

If panda is such as good business, why can't china just increase funding of breeding more pandas? Is the panda food source is too limited?

Sun Bin said...

food source is a problem, but only a minor one.
panda is not very fertile, and not very interested in mating. some mom do not take care of the cubs.
the cub is small as a finger and easier crushed by the fat and clumsy mom.

as you can see from the link above, breeding in capitivity extremely difficult until last year.

Anonymous said...

Similar to cats and dogs, average panda only has a lifespan of 10 to 15 years, the oldest one in captivity is like 25 years old.

Anonymous said...

Politics aside, certain people know the economic potentials these pandas will bring, three cities, Taichung, Kaohsiung and Taipei are currently fighting for the right to host the panda.

http://www.chineseworld.com/wj-tw-news.php?nt_seq_id=1293115

Anonymous said...

Possibly wrong reference. Another saying is panda does not like mating.
Any zoologist here can tell when and why panda start eating bamboo? Converted to Buddhist?

Michael Turton said...

Apple Daily unbiased! ROFLMAO. Ah, I never suspected you had such a sense of humor! Otherwise fine work.

Michael

Anonymous said...

"Apple Daily unbiased! ROFLMAO"

LOL me too!

Sun Bin said...

not really humor.
in HK apple daily is Democrat biased.

however, taiwan has a totally different media ecological system. i cannot think of one major medium in Taiwan that is more balanced than Apple Daily.

Anonymous said...

To Michael Turtle the foreigner separatist,

Apple daily's owner is a strong anti-CCP advocate. That's the fact. Do you bother to state that?

Who am I?


I am a native Taiwanese.
And Who are you to represent the views of our fellow Taiwanese??? Your biased blog, Mr Michael Turtle, is a disgrace to the Taiwanese blogosphere.

Sun Bin said...

this shows how panda in capitivity (from injured panda rescued from the wilderness, and the descendents) helps to save the species.

全球首隻飼養熊貓將野放 (2006-04-26 17:05:00)

經過近三年野化訓練,中國四川臥龍保護大熊貓研究中心的貓熊「祥祥」,二十八日將正式野放。

新華社報道,「祥祥」於二零零一年八月在中國保護大熊 廣 告



貓研究中心出生,兩歲時被選定進行野化訓練,先後在用圍欄圍成的一期兩萬多平方公尺野化場,以及二期二十多萬平方公尺野化場地生活近三年,目前野性十足,身體非常強健。

野化過程中,「祥祥」學會築巢、選擇食物、標記地盤、驅逐入侵者等本領。專家年初論證認為,「祥祥」已具備放歸大自然的條件。

據報道,目前是野外竹筍生長季節,選擇此時野放將使「祥祥」覓食更輕鬆,有利於牠初期的野外生活。

「祥祥」野放後,中國保護大熊貓研究中心將採用衛星定位系統和無線電系統,進行跟蹤研究。

據了解,全世界僅剩一千五百九十多隻野生貓熊,人工圈養的貓熊有一百八十多隻。

On said...

wow tooooooooo cute!!! I would like to take a look of the pandas too!

I love Panda... and just bought a Panda Bag from the following Blogshop:
panda.cwahi.net

Nice to meet you.