2006-10-09

North Korea nuclear test information

Update (10/10):

Global security has a few satellite pictures showing the entrance of the Punggye-yok tunnel
(update 10/12, H-T commentator luistxo for google location tags, and from there a previous post by armscontrolwonk)





north-korea tagged map by user - Tagzania

I am not sure exactly where it is located, but I found a couple suspicious buildings a few hundred meters east of the epicenter, at 41.309438E,129.19365N



north-korea tagged map by user - Tagzania

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Google map links here. DPRK map here, the site is north of Chunhyung-ri (春兴里), or 17 km NNW of the train station Punggye-yok (豐溪驿) and just a few km south of the source of the river called Ŏrang-ch’ŏn. (渔郎川)

Thee seismological information for the suspected DPRK nuke test is available on USGS's website.

  • Earthquake Details

    Magnitude4.2 (Light)
    Date-Time
  • Monday, October 9, 2006 at 01:35:27 (UTC) = Coordinated Universal Time
  • Monday, October 9, 2006 at 10:35:27 AM = local time at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
  • Location41.294°N, 129.134°E
    Depth0 km (~0 mile) set by location program
    RegionNORTH KOREA
    Distances70 km (40 miles) N of Kimchaek, North Korea 90 km (55 miles) SW of Chongjin, North Korea 180 km (115 miles) S of Yanji, Jilin, China 385 km (240 miles) NE of PYONGYANG, North Korea
    Location Uncertaintyhorizontal +/- 10.5 km (6.5 miles); depth fixed by location program
    ParametersNst= 17, Nph= 17, Dmin=371.1 km, Rmss=0.86 sec, Gp= 83°, M-type=body magnitude (Mb), Version=7
    SourceUSGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
    Event IDustqab
It is awfully close to the China/Russia border (180km vs 250km). I hope this time China will not tolerate this bad boy any more.

About the location:

  • 70 km (40 miles) N of Kimchaek, North Korea
  • 90 km (55 miles) SW of Chongjin, North Korea
  • 180 km (115 miles) S of Yanji, Jilin, China (aka Gando ),
  • About 200km from the south tip of Russian Far East (Estuary of Tumen)
The site is also about 200km from Chosin Reservoir, where one of the bloodiest battle was fought between China and US in 1950, in which China scored a pyrrhic victory. There 25k of Chinese lives were lost (many thousand more by frostbite) for helping KJI's father.

P.S.
1) see Marmot's coverage for related reports. On the moral hazard that encouraged KJI down this path, a commentator there said, "if pakistan’s experience is any indication for the consequences of a nuke test, then north korea can count on being partners with the US in the war on terror within a few years. or they could follow india’s lead, and in that case they’ll receive american nuclear technology as a “punishment.”"
2) some reports say the location is around Hwadae Kun 花台. but it does not match the longitude and latitude information by USGS
3) USGS showed the depth of the quake is "0 km" below ground/sea level. It seems to confirm SK report that it is done through horizontal tunnel into a hill. NK's announcement that no radiation leak is likely a dubious claim. underground water will carry the radiation and it may be an environment disaster (which could affect NW part of the Sea of Japan and fishing industry of Russia)
4) Update: Globalsecurity puts the location at north of Kilchu Punggye-yok 吉州郡 豐溪驛(near 豐溪里), "the general proximate vicinity of the P'unggye-yok site"

  • In late September 2006, a member of the intelligence committee of South Korea's National Assembly reported on the construction of a tunnel at Mount Mantap in North Hamkyong Province. According to South Korea's National Intelligence Service, the tunnel is approximately 700 meters deep beneath the surface of Mount Mantap and is situated near a horizontal tunnel.
    Mount Mantap is approximately 17 Km North-Northwest from P'unggye-yok, a rail-road station, Kilju County, North Hamgyeong Province.
    The named place that is most nearly proximate to the possible nuclear underground test site is Chik-tong, a small populated place located at 41°16'00"N 129°06'00"E. The suspect site is quite isolated, and is to be found several kilometers away from Chik-tong, and several kilometers removed from Mount Mantap.

5) Jane's Defence confirmed the location as "approximately 42 km northwest of Kilchu, in the province of North Hamgyong, on the remote slopes of Mant'ap-san Mountain."

  • This coincides with reports that first appeared during 2005 of suspicious tunnelling and construction activities in the area. Subsequent reports during the past month indicate that the North Koreans had excavated a 700 m-long horizontal tunnel under Mant'ap-san.

    Although details are tentative, initial and unconfirmed South Korean reports indicate that the test was a fission device with a yield of .55 kT. By comparison the nuclear bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima yielded approximately 12.5 kT. The figure of .55 kT, however, seems too low given the 4.2 register on the Richter scale. This could suggest - depending upon the geological make-up of the test site - a yield of 2-12 kT. If, however, the lower yield is correct, it would suggest that the test had been a "pre- or post-detonation" event (ie a failure), as it had been anticipated that North Korea's first nuclear test would have a significantly higher yield.

Update: SK NIS claimed a different location about 50 km south, i.e. near Musudan-ri. Since the seimological data traces the strength and direction of seismic waves from different point to triangulate the epicenter. It is considered to be more accurate. Therefore, the USGS result of Kilchu Gun, Punggye-yok (吉州郡 豐溪驛), which agrees with a site where satellite surveillance revealed suspected activitities (see, e.g., Globalsecurity), is considered to be more reliable than the South Korean claim. I am of the opinion that SK intelligence failed again.

4 comments:

Luistxo said...

You can see several locations here and get maps that can be embedded in your blog (for other occasions, if you like): get code to copy/paste for this or that, for instance.

Sun Bin said...

luistxo,

thanks a lot for your links. i will update my post.
the alleged 'entrance' on tagzania seems to be leading to the opposite direction from the epicenter, which shows there may be another entrance?

Anonymous said...

您好:
我是小时候在中国留学过的学生。
我之所以给您写邮件是因为我在贵出版社出版的中国地图册中发现了一个问题。
中国地形的地图上只写着日本海。
但是日本海是日本的名称,韩国叫东海。
http://www.godeyes.cn/html/2005/12/06/download_156.html
您应该也了解到现在韩国和日本仔争论东海和日本海的名称问题。
当被日本侵略韩国的时侯,韩国是个很软弱的国家,可现在不是了。
并且历史在证明这是东海,而不是日本海。
现在已经有很多媒体和教科书在纠正。
比如,美国国家地理(National Geographic)答应VANK把日本海改称为东海,百度网站的百度百科上也两种名称。
因此希望贵出版社把日本海纠正为韩国的东海。如果纠正的问题有些敏感,至少应该在地图上标出两种名称。

子曰:错而不改,是谓过矣。
综上所述,我在期待的等着贵出版社的好消息。
我相信经过贵出版社的考察研究并做出明智的决定。
最后,祝贵出版社事业兴旺,万事如意。

hyejn jang said...


您好:
我是小时候在中国留学过的学生。
我之所以给您写邮件是因为我在贵出版社出版的中国地图册中发现了一个问题。
中国地形的地图上只写着日本海。
但是日本海是日本的名称,韩国叫东海。
http://www.godeyes.cn/html/2005/12/06/download_156.html
您应该也了解到现在韩国和日本仔争论东海和日本海的名称问题。
当被日本侵略韩国的时侯,韩国是个很软弱的国家,可现在不是了。
并且历史在证明这是东海,而不是日本海。
现在已经有很多媒体和教科书在纠正。
比如,美国国家地理(National Geographic)答应VANK把日本海改称为东海,百度网站的百度百科上也两种名称。
因此希望贵出版社把日本海纠正为韩国的东海。如果纠正的问题有些敏感,至少应该在地图上标出两种名称。

子曰:错而不改,是谓过矣。
综上所述,我在期待的等着贵出版社的好消息。
我相信经过贵出版社的考察研究并做出明智的决定。
最后,祝贵出版社事业兴旺,万事如意。