2007-02-03

Application of Sun Zi (ii): Lee Tenghui's brilliant coup

Those who had played 2-dimensional strategy games versus a computer will know, the computer player A.I. is often badly programmed, such that you can trick it into following you to a dead end, trap it, and take its territory. (the software had not improved since Pacman and Load Runner, you can still do these tricks with Civilization, and Sangokushi)

Lee Tenghui is perhaps such a great game player, for he has successfully tricked his competitor, the DPP and Chen Shui-bian, into such a corner, and has now emerged to take DPP's vast territory, from the empty space the DPP has already given up -- the light green. (See 1, 2, 3, HT ESWN)

Despite all the controversy about his character or political foxiness, you have to admit that he is good, indeed very good.

When Lee was forced out of KMT, the Green camp has already been taken by CSB and his DPP. Lee has to settle for a niche of "deep green" called TSU. For years he has been trying to re-take his territory, the central light green area which supports status quo (instead of aggressive independence), but in vain, because that area was already taken.

As CSB and DPP under SK Yu (a puppet of CSB) are trying to defend their position amid various scandals by moving toward fundamentalism, Leng Tenghui started a race to fundamentalism with them, accusing them of not being aggressive enough. Now that DPP has fallen into his trap, Lee suddenly emerged on the other end of the map and shut the door behind him.

People accused Lee of flip-flopping. I tend to believe Lee has planned for this for a very long time. Expect TSU taking the middle ground and emerge to replace DPP as the leader in the green camp, and expect this new TSU to be more or less a replicate of the KMT under Lee era, sans the light Blue members -- in fact, Wang Jingpin might jump ship soon. 2008 may belong to Ma Yingjiou as the Green will be split, but soon afterward TSU will dominate the Green camp and DPP marginalized. TSU and DPP will switch chairs. By 2010 perhaps Lee may be able to defeat KMT!

The only question that remains is, why does CSB, who used to be such a smart politician, behaves like a player on badly programmed A.I. algorithm?

5 comments:

aircow said...

because chen has no where else to go. the scandals first started getting out of hand because of his son-in-law. I truly believe that the son-in-law scandal caught him by surprise. All of the things about his wife was done in a way that could be handle and managed.
here is the thing though, chen and lee has simply switched roles. they raid the government coffers, and extract as much money as possible and when they are not in office fund green grass root movements. They know taiwan independence have to be won by winning US votes. FAPA is huge in the US. I bet they get a lot of money from Lee. They take turns raiding money from the government, fund it to grassroot orgs. And take turns to create a unique taiwan identity. This is not a battle about independence. Because Republic of China is already independent. It is a battle of cultural identity, and thus about nationalism. Let's not forget American Revolution and the boston tea party. There is kaoshung tea party, happening right in front of us.

Anonymous said...

You are pretty bad when it comes to political commentary on Taiwan. TSU and PFP are going to be smothered by this December when both have zero seats in the new legislature. It's just not possible for anyone outside the DPP/KMT to survive in the new larger legislative districts.

Wackos on the margin, within the two mainstream parties and the TSU/PFP were anomalies of the old many candidates per district system. All of this will be eliminated.

What needs to happen now is the KMT needs to get rid of party coffers (or else the gov't needs to subsidize candidates, perhaps based on past party performance to an extent).

Come on Sun Bin. Apply your capitalist brain to democracy. What Taiwan needs are transparent elections with both parties having democratic mechanisms for nomination. There needs to be an even amount of money spent by both sides, or at least in proportion to the number people who support a side, so that people aren't able to buy votes, either literally or indirectly through advertising/events/etc.

The DPP are like the Democrats. Yes, there are the more populist candidates, but it's a big tent. When people want to make noise or give an opinion in the DPP, they do so. The DPP in generally more closely reflects democratic ideals in their nomination of candidates.

The KMT on the other hand is powered by money, old guard waisheng, is not at all transparent, and in both their upcoming presidential primary and their party chairman elections, basically already have a set candidate, with little mosquitoes trying to make noise on the side.

Anyways, TSU/PFP are dead.

Sun Bin said...

let's wait till Dec and we will see.
TSU was marginalized, but let's see if LTH was able to reverse the trend. (or rather, DPP was stupid even to swap position with TSU)

Dylan Wan, PMP EVP said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dylan Wan, PMP EVP said...

An interesting view. I also believe that Lee Tenghui is very strategic, but I do not think that he can plan for everything.

DPP and TSU will not swap their positions. TSU does not have no enough good candidate for elections.

In the coming president election, I think that he would prefer Ma to win, but want to to ensure Ma can take the green's policy as much as possible. If Ma cannot perform as expected. It is still a possibility that he may support Hsieh (Xie).