Taiwan's 25 friends, who is next?

ESWN reviewed Chen Shui Bian's bribery diplomacy. Meizhongtai asked who is the next to go in the phone book of Taiwan's Foreign Minster. I think I can try to answer MZT's question.

This is an overview of Taiwan 25 friends (plus the 26th, Senegal)
Source: Mike Dowling using CIA's databook 2001 (so PPP was used), wiki

Nation	Population	Area/sq m	GDP/PPP($bn)
Belize	272,945	8,867	$1.28
Burkina Faso	13,574,820	105,869	$14.55
Chad	9,538,544	495,752	$10.67
Costa Rica	3,956,507	19,730	$35.34
Dominican Rep	8,833,634	18,815	$52.71
El Salvador	6,587,541	8,124	$30.99
Gambia, The	1,546,848	4,363	$2.56
Guatemala	14,280,596	42,042	$56.50
Haiti	7,656,166	10,714	$12.30
Holy See(Vatican)	921	0.17	$0.02
Honduras	6,823,568	43,278	$17.55
Kiribati	100,798	313	$0.08
Malawi	11,906,855	45,745	$6.85
Marshall Islands	57,738	70	$0.12
Nauru	12,809	8	$0.06
Nicaragua	5,359,759	49,998	$11.60
Palau	20,016	177	$0.17
Panama	3,000,463	30,193	$18.78
Paraguay	6,191,368	157,056	$28.17
St Kitts & Nevis	38,836	65	$0.34
St Vincent & G	117,193	150	$0.34
Sao Tome & P	181,565	386	$0.21
Senegal	10,852,147	75,749	$17.09
Solomon Is.	523,617	10,985	$0.80
Swaziland	1,169,241	6,704	$5.70
Tuvalu	11,468	10	$0.01
Total	112,615,963	1,135,163	$325
World	6,379,157,361	196,939,757	$51,480.00
TW26 / world	1.77%	0.58%	0.63%

• GDP/cap of the 26 is $2884 (in PPP), about 35% of world average ($8070), 1/6 of Taiwan's in $17255 in that year (2001)
• Literacy 63%, vs world average 77%
• Life expectancy 58, vs world average 64

Now subtract Senegal, the stats change

• Pop, area, GDP shares drop to 1.60%, 0.54%, 0.60%
• GDP/cap improves to $3024
• Literacy goes up to 65%
• Life expectancy stays at 58

Senegal was presumably lured away by a better offer from mainland China, which is not entirely a result of more generous bribery.

• Because a larger nation will have more economic interests in stake (that is why Taiwan cannot bribe India or Nigeria away). The mainland can offer more economic activities and the aid is less costly (comparatively) because some of activities in the form of aids may lead to profitable business.
• The other reason that bribery diplomacy works for the microstates is because a few million dollars represent a large sum compared with their GDP (PPP is not a good measure in this case, but I am lazy).

Sengal is among the largest of the 26 and not really a micro-state. Some micro-states are so shameless that they switched side as soon as there is a better price.

Therefore, I predict the next to go (other than the well anticipated Holy See) will be those with large population and/or GDP, Burkina Faso, Malawi, Chad and less likely, Guatemala, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica or Paraguay. Losing the latter two away will hit all stats, but losing the African 3 will improve the 'quality stats' such like GDP/cap, literacy and life expectancy.

But there is one important indicator, where they are all equal, which is the UN General Assembly vote. The UNGA was repsonsible for replacing ROC with PRC in 1971. Taiwan's friends have about 12% vote, way higher than any other indicators above. ZHJ commented in my previous post that it is not fair for Taiwan to get a Ukraine-under-USSR-style UN seat. I think it is unfair that these "shameless states" (*) get 12% of UNGA votes.

On a separate note, for those anti-Bush Californians who wanted an independent CA, how about splitting into 5 states and get 8 more seats in the Senate, or 30 states and 58 more seats. CA population is 32x RI's, and 68x WY's.

Note (*). Not all of them have been bribable, Paraguay, Panama, Dominican Rep and Haita's were loyal friends to ROC since 1950s.