Another surprise detour by Chen Shui Bian?

There are signs that Taiwan's Chen Shui-bian is planning for another surprise detour next week. He has surpised us before.

Here is the flight plan and mileage for his trip

• TPE (25°04'40"N 121°13'58"E) ROR (07°22'02"N 134°32'39"E) 1502 mi
• ROR (07°22'02"N 134°32'39"E) INU (00°32'51"S 166°55'09"E) 2299 mi
• INU (00°32'51"S 166°55'09"E) GUM (13°29'00"N 144°47'46"E) 1797 mi
• GUM (13°29'00"N 144°47'46"E) TPE (25°04'40"N 121°13'58"E) 1729 mi
• Total 4 segment path: 7327 mi

What is intriguing is his obsessiveness on using "Air-force 1" (Commonly mocked as "Aquafresh-1" 牙膏一號 see picture above). Even after US government officially rejected AF1's request to land on Guam (AF1 is painted with ROC flag but CI plane has a "neutral" plum blossum logo), he still wanted to use it on the first leg of his trip, which only represents about 20% of his total mileage. He and his aides then devised an elaborate flight plan (see map) to

1. Send the empty AF-1 back from Palau to Taipei
2. Summon another empty CI plane (CI-2)
3. Send some of the reporters back from Palau to Taipei with a Far Eastern (commerical) flight (because Nauru is such a small nation, with less than 10k people, half the media/business team would skip it)
4. Use 2 CI planes to get from Palau to Nauru, because the the short runway in Nauru only permits 40% passenger load for the 737
5. Fly one empty plane (CI-2) back from Nauru to Taipei, use the other plane for the Nauru-Guam-Taipei "detour diplomacy" trip
6. Total empty segments: AF1 Palau-Taipei; CI-1 and CI-2 Taipei-Palau; CI-2 Nauru-Guam-Taipei
   

The total cost for this elaborate arrangement will be over NT$27M (i.e. US$0.9M), vs about NTD 7-8M had he used the simple plan of

• one flight throughout CI-1 Taipei-Palau-Nauru-Guam-Taipei
• commission commerical plane from Nauru for the Palau-Guam segment (After all, Taipei spent US$10M to subsidize Nauru's airline. It is very likely Nauru would do this for free, which could save Taipei perhaps another NT$1M)
  

Chen Shui Bian has been using AF-1 in his domestic trips extensively. So this is no new gadget to him. It is really puzzling that he would prefer to spend 200% (US$0.6M) more just to enjoy the AF-1 for 20% of his trip. It makes no economic sense. It does not help his falling approval rating at all.

As a result, various conspiracy theories emerged. Among them Chen was alleged of planning his exile with this trip (AF-1 can carry his secret assets). Given Chen's character of "never give up" and obsesssion for power, I strongly doubt such theory.

Discarding the exile theory, the current plan is a very strange one, both economically and politically. More plausible explanations include

• Chen is planning another surprise, such as detour, because he now highly distrust the CI staff (probably some leak over his plan to stop by Lebanon/Libya in his May trip)
• Some important 'freight' is transported on AF-1 from Taipei-Palau (perhaps some crucial "evidence" related to the State Affair Budget, that the country in question is Palau?)
  

Either this, i.e., some major surprise on Sep 3rd, or we can only conclude that Chen Shuibain has lost his mind, because the waste of US$0.6M (NT$18M) equals 1/3-1/2 the amount of the scandulous "State Affair Budget" claimed with fictitious receipts. The average "air-ticket" cost for the 150 people is about $6k/passenger, enough for a First Class rounder trip retail ticket for TPE-NYC.

I believe it is the former. We shall to find out in a few days.

Update: TVBS talk show on the trip

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• taiwan
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