2006-11-04

Will the Taiwan recall be passed this time?

Let's suppose DPP decided to back CSB up, or let the legislators choose their own vote. Would CSB recall be passed this time.

The total number of seat in the Legislative Yuan is 220. 147 is needed to pass the recall bill. In the second recall motion, 116 votes (pan-Blue + independent) supported the recall. In the first recall in June 119 supported (more independent went to vote).

The shortfall was 28. (Let's assume this time all 119 will support the recall). We now know for sure that there will be 12 votes from TSU. That means another 16 is needed from some DPP members.

What do the DPP members think? Do we have the 16 votes? Here is the poll of 70 DPP legislators (total=89, I suppose 19 were not approached or not approachable). 21 refused interview, so we only have the answer from 49 of them.
  • If the investigation found that CSB should be indicted, will he need to step down? 33 Yes, 6(suspend power of president), 10 No
  • If CSB refused to step down, what should be done? 12 recall, 3 impeach 3, 14 He should be able to make the right decision, 7 DPP will make the right decision, 4 this will not happen or never considered this situation 4, 9 No

Marginal, but not unlikely this time. Evidence were pouring in for the past 9 months, making the Chen family corruption case look like a 10-year old car lacking proper maintenance -- leaks and gaps everywhere. The cases for Sogo and State Affair Budget were so clear even to an outsider like this blogger, that I congratulated Annette Lu in May.

Related link (gauging the DPP response)

1) The apologist stucked: (Liberty Times) 扁:被迫要講出機密費對象, 說法獲黨內巨頭接受與支持

2) Two possibilities of the "First Indictment" case - Ruan Ming (former advisor to Chen Shui-bian) -- cached below

3) Editorial from pro-Green Taipei Times - The president must make his case

4) Taipei Times on Eric Chen the prosecutor

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吳淑珍案的兩個可能

可能一:司法公正,證據確鑿,依法起訴,依法判刑,吳淑珍罪有應得。陳水扁總統涉案部分,在職時不起訴,卸職後追訴。
但人們難免疑惑:幾個月來被攻擊得如此不公、不義、沉淪、墮落,準備動員「天下圍攻」的台灣司法,怎麼一夕之間,忽然從九地之下,飛升到九天之上?

尤其令人驚訝的,是多方人士通過媒體不斷放話,稱該起訴書內容已洩露給政府高層甚至美國代表楊甦棣,所以才有某某等近來的一些言論與動作云云。
於是就有了可能二:起訴書的公正性與證據的確鑿性還值得進一步探究。假如其公正性與確鑿性真是那麼可以確信無疑,是不必大費周章,大放空氣,造成這樣一種局面的。說得好聽點,叫戲劇性。說得難聽點,是故布疑陣,設下陷阱。
現在無論屬於哪一個可能,反正已經套住。因為表態相信台灣司法的,是政府高層,是美國,是信任陳水扁的公眾。陳水扁只有信守承諾,沒有別的選擇。
但這不是吳淑珍案的結局,只是吳淑珍案的開始!

作者為前國策顧問

阮銘

2 comments:

Jason said...

An interesting scenario there. I suppose the question confronting the DPP is whether having Chen continue on as president is worse than having Lu become president.

Any other time I'd assume that the restive New Tide members would support a recall, but considering that a successful recall would sweep their arch-nemesis Annette Lu into power, I doubt they'll bite. Perhaps we'll just end up seeing a large number of DPP members take te politically safe road and abstain from voting?

This gives me a headache just thinking about it!

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