2008-03-31

Postmortem of Taiwan election

Just as I had thought, according to Ma's aide Su Junbin (English translated by ESWN)
  • The extremist/fundamentalist (i.e deep greeen and deep blue) had already made up their mind. It was the moderates who were swayed. Actually, not just be swayed into voting, but also into NOT voting
  • 苏俊宾:我们的支持率其实没有上升,因为讨厌庄国荣的人本来就支持我们,他讲了更令人讨厌的话,对我们来讲没有任何帮助。
    南都:也就是说,庄国荣事件没有对选举造成任何影响。
    苏俊宾:有。我们的支持率没有上升,但他们(长昌配)的支持率掉了两个百分点,连绿营的基本盘都有2%看不过去。长昌配的支持率都已经很低了,再掉两个百分点是雪上加霜。所以,庄国荣事件对我们来讲,最大的效果并不是攻城略地,而是守住城池,使他们没办法步步进攻。所以庄国荣有一定的贡献,应该颁“华夏奖章”给他。
  • Q. Six days before the election, Ministry of Education Secretary-General Chuang Kuo-jung used foul language at a Hsieh-Su rally. Even the normally intransigent Hsieh-Su campaign headquarters issued an apology. The media believed that this incident affected the Hsieh-Su campaign. After the election, certain pan-green voters thought that Chung Kuo-jung and Chen Shui-bian were the culprits for the election loss. According to the KMT internal polls, how many percentage points did Ma-Siew get as a result of Chung Kuo-jung?
  • A. Our support level did not rise, because all those who detest Chuang Kuo-jung are our supporters already. Even if he said something worse, it would not have helped us.
  • Q. That is to say, the Chuang Kuo-jung affair had no impact?
  • A. There was an impact. While our support level did not rise, the Hsieh-Su support level fell by 2% because even the greens found it intolerable. The Hsieh-Su support level was low to begin with, and this made it even lower. The Chuang Kuo-jung enabled us to defend our territory and ensure that they cannot attack us. Therefore, Chuang Kuo-jung made a contribution.
  • It was the economy, stupid. And it was the China market that matters the economy, stupid!
  • “民进党过去八年来的两岸政策是封锁的,它没有办法解决中层的问题,导致台湾没有办法跟韩国、日本、新加坡去竞争,它们跟大陆的经贸是正常的,我们则是有重重限制的。在这样的前提下,我们当然想改变。所以我们的一个议题抵得上他们20个议题,最后从选票也可以反映出来。”
  • DPP was caught with surprise and become inconsistent at Ma's reaction to Tibet. When you got inconsistent and put aside your values and your principles at an all out offense, you lose (take heed, pan-Dem in HK!)
  • 过去民进党政府抵制奥运圣火到台,民视、三立电视台等亲绿的媒体都拍手鼓励。TVBS跟其他的媒体则讲:政治归政治,体育归体育。但是这次马英九发表声明之后,三立电视台就错乱了,他们开始讲“政治归政治,体育归体育”了
  • 所以那天很有意思的,过去民进党政府抵制奥运圣火到台,民视、三立电视台等亲绿的媒体都拍手鼓励。TVBS跟其他的媒体则讲:政治归政治,体育归体育。但是这次马英九发表声明之后,三立电视台就错乱了,他们开始讲“政治归政治,体育归体育”了。当你听到民进党和亲绿的媒体也在讲“体育跟政治分离”的时候,你就知道他们无法操弄“统独”意识了。我们把它逼到理性那里,有什么不好?我们把它逼回正轨,它就无法操纵了。选举最怕什么?最怕情感。投票是个感情的动作,是个情绪的动作。而现在,它要挑战我们,它必须理性。在这种情况之下,很简单就达到了我们想要的效果。

Good lesson for HK. Particularly the last point.

3 comments:

草示儿 said...

The most important reason for Ma's victory is not that Ma led a good campaign, but that people hated Chen Shui-Bian and his governance so much that they didn't want DPP to win again. I don't think Ma's advisors get this.

Lin rAphael said...

dpp封鎖!?多次釋出善意,都被拒絕
是中國共產黨不想跟台灣民主進步黨談

中國共產黨只想跟中國國民黨談
黨對黨才能談

這點請你先弄清楚

如果不是中華人民共和國在體育上有政治上的考量,矮化中華民國,把中華民國當成自己的一個區看待,會造成這樣的問題嗎?中華人民共和國都沒政治考量?

一起把問題解釋清楚吧!
XD

稍微解釋一下而已XD

Sun Bin said...

DPP 拒絕和懼怕三通,路人皆知。

記得第一次包機直航時,由于大陸國航早點到達,被懷疑沒有依規則在香港ATC報到而變相“直航”。一眾DPP政客暴跳如雷,揚言禁止。你不是忘了吧?

基于其本身政治利益考量,恐懼三通,對dpp是有理由的。因為,各種層面交流,和通婚,只會沖淡“本省籍”的血統,并dilute DPP的票源。這對于DPP的臺灣nationalism是不利的。

了解這一點,就不難了解為何DPP的“善意”都是在做戲。就如其自稱要三通,卻在抵制三通的事實。

我不是說這是對或錯。我認為,DPP為了本身生存,這并沒有對錯之分。只是,假如為了一黨之私利,而影響到人民的福祉,這又何以自別與對岸的GC-D或馬之前的KMT?同時,假如死守其創黨理念會影響了本身的存在(和人民的利益),DPP是否有檢討修正其教義的需要?

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對岸ZF有政治考量,也有愚味無理之時。直到3、4年前,與DPP不相伯仲,更有甚之。

本post主要討論KMT和DPP策略。外界環境,不由你控制,不代表就是你失敗的借口、理由。因為你沒有采取一些很淺顯的更好的解決方法。