2005-12-04

Did pan-blue really win?

Pan-blue won the city and county mayor election. But what can we say about the grand presidential election in 2008? Not much.

History has shown us that voter can vote for different parties in different polls. There is also the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayor election in 2006 which may allow for a re-alignment.

Even in this election, the election of city/county councillors and township mayors have received little attention. But these are relevant information for presidential vote in 2008, and they demonstrated how voters would vote for different parties in different polls.

Here is the results according to Chinatimes



20052001

bluegreenbluegreen
mayors52.26%43.07%47.40%45.30%
councillors44.63%24.60%43.40%19.70%
township mayors47.54%24.42%47.60%20.10%





change over 2001


bluegreen

mayors+4.86%-2.23%

councillors+1.23%+4.90%

township mayors-0.06%+4.32%







Pan blue's performance was weaker than pan-green in both of the other polls. Pan-green made solid advance (+4.3% and +4.9%), presumably at the sacrifice of independent candidates. Another interpretation for the mayor-election win of pan-blue is the Ma Ying-Jeou spillover effect. i.e., Ma single handedly boosted the votes of many candidates (e.g. Keelung). But Ma did not tie his politcal fate to the 2nd and 3rd polls. If that is indeed the case, then Ma would have a clear edge in 2008.

In any case, Ma Ying-Jeou was right, "we need to roll up our sleeves and face the challenges", there are a lot more to be done if he wants to become the next president.

---
Fig. The NT$1000 note satire on DPP corruption,with picture of 3Chen +Su + Hsieh, titled "Bald Eagle Bank, Money group rules" created by KMT during the election. KMT's success relies largely on the corruption scandal linked to Chan and Hsieh's protege. What would the result in 2008 be (if) DPP is not affected by such scandal?

(Bald Eagle is related to the stock market trading scandal)
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5 comments:

Nautic said...

In a presidential election, the DDP was able to stage something dramatic to swing the voters island-wide in their favor, such as the "assassination" incident in the eve of last presidential election. In local polls like these mayoral elections, however, you can not plan something like this in every one of the 23 counties of the island; hence the defeat.

Seriously, the results of today's polls indicate how fedup of the people have been with the impotency and curruption of the rulling DDP politicians in governing.

Sun Bin said...

Yes, but if Ma has replaced Lien in 2004, the bullet scratch incidence would have little impact on the results.

and, yes, you are right about today's polls. but a lot of things can happen from now till Feb/2008. and Ma was right in being cautious.

Michael Turton said...

The assassination attempt by a pan-Blue supporter had no effect on the Presidential election; the latest polls showed that Chen was slightly ahead, and he won by a nose. It's time Blue supporters grew up on this one. If you are going to claim that Chen got sympathy, you also have to acknowledge that the DPP was hurt by the conspiracy allegation.

Turning toward more sane stuff, your analysis is akin to mine, Sun Bin. Thanks!


Michael

Nautic said...

If the "assassination" attempt were by a Pan-Blue support (sic), how would the DPP have been hurt by the conspiracy allegation?

You can't get both at the same time.

Sun Bin said...

here is my (person) view on the 'assasination atempt'

1. it is extremely unprofessionally done, many loops that cannot be tied. but there is no verdict or undisputed evidence as for this is a fake assassination. so yes, Chen might very likely have played a dirty trick. But there is also a (small) possibility that he is innocent.
2. based on the principle of presumed innocence. he became the president. we need to accept this as a compromise to how democracy and rule of law work. (even if he planned that, i guess we could only call him to resign, instead of invalidating the poll?)
3. for polls of such a narrow margin, both candidates have the legitimacy to win.
4. pan-blue should only blame itself for failed campaign, and having allowed the old guards (lien and soong) to stand for the election. i am sure Ma could have won despite the 'bullet scrath' event.
5. if the incidence would rally sympathy for Chen, that means these people are already siding with Chen. so it is not likely to have swayed the vote a lot.

conclusion, yes, there may be conspiracy. but there is also some lesson for pan-blue to learn, if we focus on the future.