Here is the new essay by James Pickerton, "Superpower Showdown - America needs a new strategy for dealing with China, a country we can’t contain and can’t afford to fight", in "American Conservative". He saw than it is impractical to maintain global hegemony the Bushism way, and that the "balance of power" paradigm of leveraging one against the other might be more practical. He gave his opinions on many writings in recent years, including those of Kaplan and Pillsbury, and on containment, Taiwan, and self-fulfilling prophecy.
- "So America’s grand strategy for the next century should be twofold, First, we must recognize that rising powers inherently bring rising threats. Second, such rising powers should be balanced, played off each other, and not directly confronted. Why? Because the cost of American participation in nuclear-era world war, for any reason less than national survival, is simply too great. America would be wise to accept a reduced role in Asia in exchange for a reduced responsibility for participating in the inevitable future regional conflicts.
- So the time has come for a different strategy that is neither hawkish nor dovish—merely realistic. It’s a foreign-policy approach that’s been proven in the past, in the historical crucible of great-power jockeying. "
For the time being I do not have much to say, except a small correction of fact. He said
- "we recently learned that cyber- snoops at Shandong University had decrypted Secure Hash Algorithm-1, one of the basic codes of the U.S. military. " -- Certainly what the computer scientists in Shandong did was great accomplishment. However, the hash encryption they broke was an academic breakthrough, on a code published in NSB, and widely used in credit card and other commercial application. US military uses more sophisticated encryption.
This is a sober reflection of US foreign policy, except for his assessment of Japan going down the nuclear road, as that will not be an Asian affair, because nukes can strike the Amrican continent just as easily.
Update (Dec 10): great comments on this article by Green Apron Monkey, and on the background of the publisher.