2008-04-10

Let's find out the truth

Update: Interesting research from the Dailykos (Chinese translation), which seems to echo the message in this seemingly "far-fetched" video.

(update 2: the GFW is blocking this post, such that my whole front page was blocked. so i have shift the date to March (instead of Apr) so that my blogspot page can appear normally inside China)

--
An Anon commentator left some good links regarding casulaty of the "March 10-14 crackdown" here. Let's document (and update) on this.

This is a list of 40 names from the pro-T1-bet camp (which is now gone, not sure if it is due to the GFW or took down by the webmaster) released on March 26. Google brought me to another site where the list is still available

  • Update on Death Toll from Tibet demonstrations
    Mar 27, 2008 in News
    Update for Tuesday, 25 March 2008, last updated 3 pm (IST)
    While the most recent death toll from the demonstrations in Tibet is around 140, we are releasing the names and details of 40 identified people.
    Since the start of the Demonstrations in Tibet on March 10, there has been a steady rise in the death toll. As the demonstrations continue to spread vastly to many areas in Tibet, the number of people who have died from the brutal military and police suppression during the peaceful demonstrations is astounding.
    While we have confirmed information on the death toll from the demonstrations so far, it has been extremely difficult to get the details due to all the restrictions that have been imposed by Chinese authorities, especially since March 10th.
    The most recent death toll from the demonstrations in Tibet is around 140 and we are releasing the names and details of 40 identified people. While we do have reliable information on other individuals killed during the demonstrations, we are gathering more comprehensive information before we release more names from the death toll list.
    We have reliable sources confirming the death of numerous individuals killed during the recent demonstrations; however, we are still in the process of gathering more details (such as name and place of residence). For instance, while we can confirm that during the protest in Dabpa County (Karze “Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,” Sichuan province), an elderly person, a young girl and a boy were shot and killed by the Chinese military, further details are still being gathered.
    Many of the dead bodies from the recent demonstrations are being turned into the People’s Procuratorates instead of being returned to their respective families. This has also made it more difficult to gather details on the death toll.
  • S. No. / NAME/ AGE/GENDER/PLACE OF RESIDENCE/BIRTH/ DETAILS
  • 1 Phurbu 37 M
    Lhasa(Ch:Lasa), & TAR
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 2 Sonam Norbu 27 M
    Derge,(Ch:Dege), Karze (Ch:Ganzi)TAP,Sichuan Province
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 3 Azin around 30 M
    Palyul(Ch:Baiyu),Karze (Ch:Ganzi) TAP, Sichuan Province
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 4 Sonam Lhamo 21 F
    Palyul(Ch:Baiyu),Karze (Ch:Ganzi) TAP, Sichuan Province
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 5 Dhargye 22 M
    Damshung (Ch:Dangxiong),Lhasa Municipality,TAR;
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 6 Kunchok Samphel 21 M
    Damshung (Ch:Dangxiong), Lhasa Municipality, TAR;
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 7 Lhakpa Tsering 21 M
    Lhasa(Ch:Lasa),TAR
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 8 Thupten Tsering 24 M
    Lhasa(Ch:Lasa),TAR
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 9 Tenzin Samdup 39 M
    Lhasa(Ch:Lasa),TAR
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 10 Rigzin Choenyi 26 F
    Shugseb Nunnery, Lhasa
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 11 Lobsang Tsepel 31 M
    Sera Monastery, Lhasa TAR
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 12 Ngodup 28 M
  • Tibet University, Lhasa, "TAR"
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 13 Lobsang Doma 23 F
    Garu Nunnery
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 14 Ngawang Thekchen 20 M
    Taklung Drak Monastery, Toelung
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 15 Dhondup Dolma 19 F Student
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 16 Dechen Dolma 57 F
    Lhasa Drashi, "TAR"
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 17 Phurbu Tsamchoe 20 F
    Lhasa,"TAR"
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 18 Tashi Dorjee 22 M
    Nagchu (Naqu), Nagchu(Naqu) Prefecture
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 19 Tashi Tsering M
    Bathang(Batang)County, Karze(Ganzi)"TAP" Sichaun Province
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 20 Kalsang Yeshi M
    Markham(Ch:Mangkang) Chamdo(Ch:Changdu) Prefecture, "TAR"
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 21 Penpa (monk) 29 M
    Toelung(Ch:Dangxiong), Lhasa Municipality
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 22 Tenzin 20 F
    Toelung(Ch:Dangxiong), Lhasa Municipality
    Died on 14 March in Lhasa
  • 23 Jinpa M
    Phenpo, 3 hours northeast to Lhasa
    Died on 15 March in Phenpo
  • 24 Thokmey M
    Gyangtse, Ramoche
    Died on 23 March evening in Lhasa
  • 25 Ngogha M
    Karze (Ch:Ganzi), Karze (Ch:Ganzi) "TAP", Sichaun Province
    Died on 18 March in Karze
  • 26 Jamyang/Jampel M
    Karze (Ch:Ganzi), Karze (Ch:Ganzi) "TAP", Sichaun Province
    Died on 18 March in Karze
  • 27 Tashi Gyaltsen 18 M
    Karze (Ch:Ganzi), Karze (Ch:Ganzi) "TAP", Sichaun Province
    Died on 18 March in Karze
  • 28 Tsedup M
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), Ngapa(Ch:Aba) "TAP", Sichaun Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 29 Tashi Wangchuk M
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), Ngapa(Ch:Aba) "TAP", Sichaun Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 30 Gegyam M
    Soruma,Ngapa(Ch:Aba), TAP; Sichuan Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 31 Gephen Thaklo M
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), TAP; Sichuan Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 32 Norbu M
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), TAP; Sichuan Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 33 Lotse M
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), TAP; Sichuan Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 34 Ngodup Tso F
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), TAP; Sichuan Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 35 Atisha around 25 M
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), TAP; Sichuan Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 36 Sangye M
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), TAP; Sichuan Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 37 Tsezin M
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), TAP; Sichuan Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 38 Gonpo Lhagon around 30 M
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), TAP; Sichuan Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 39 Pelkho M
    Ngapa (Ch:Aba), TAP; Sichuan Province
    Died on 16 March in Ngapa
  • 40 Rinchen M
    Machu(Ch:Maqu) County, Kanlho, TAP; Gansu Province
    Died on 18 March in Machu
and 4 more names released on April 2

  • 41 Kunga M Monk from Chokri monastery, Drakgo (Ch: Luhuo) County, Karze "Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture," Sichuan province Was shot and killed during demonstration on March 14
  • 42 Kyari around 36 M Resident of Khekor Township, Serthar (Ch: Seda) County, Karze "TAP," Sichuan province Killed on March 20 in Khekor Township
  • 43 Gyalpo 33 M Phenpo Lhundrup (Ch: Lingzhi) County, Lhasa Municipality Died on March 26 due to severe injuries sustained from beatings during demonstrations
  • 44 Dawa Male DagpoTownship, Phenpo Lhundrup (Ch: Lingzhi) County, Lhasa Municipality Died on March 27 due to severe injuries sustained from beatings during demonstrations

It is quite likely that the 140 or 150 number is an exaageration. But it is normal under such confused condition. Let's try to verify if the 44 is an honest number. Well, if there are a couple of them really died during 14th, before the riot, the the riot is probably justified.

  • I think the government said that 3 of the casulties (when the total was 12) were Tibetan fleeing arrest, "jumped from the building".

---


This is the refutal from the government

  • Tibet police: Victim list fabricated

    14:19, April 07, 2008
    People whose names were included on a list of riot victims given by the Dalai clique are still alive, an investigation by Lhasa police has found.The Dalai clique's "government-in-exile" on March 25 released the "names and details of 40 identified people" alleged to have died in the recent riots.
  • However, the Lhasa police bureau found five of the people are still alive or never existed. The other 35 people, whom the clique merely mentioned the birthplaces or residences of as "Lhasa, Tibet" or "Aba, Sichuan province", were impossible to locate, the police said.
  • The Dalai clique announced the death of 31-year-old Lobsang Tsepel in Sera Monastery. However, the police investigation found the monk, 36, was still in the monastery.
  • The investigation found there were 12 people whose names include Ngodup at Tibet University, and all of them were alive and still working there. The Dalai clique had said a 28-year-old by that name had been killed in the unrest.Also, Lobsang Doma, of the Garu Nunnery, was age 39 and alive - not 23 and dead, as the Dalai clique had claimed.There was nobody named Rigzin Choenyi in the Shugseb Nunnery, while the nunnery has two people whose names included only the Rigzin part, and both were alive.Also, there was nobody named Ngawang Thekchen in Taklung Drak Monastery, the investigation found.
  • .....Source: China Daily
Commentators below will be the judge (and also updaters). I think we all want the real truth.

9 comments:

cc said...

Result of my first scan:

According to the list, there were 23 deaths in Lhasa (22 on 14th and 1 on 23rd).

The hypothesis is:
At least 22 Tibetans were killed by Chinese police and/or military on 14th of March, 2008 (regardless of the reasons).

The analysis is as follows:

Assume the above hypothesis/allegation is true, what is the probability that none of the above deaths can be verified with witness accounts and/or pictures/video footages?

Given
1. the number of people in Lhasa on 14th March, both Tibetans, including the rioters/protesters and non-Tibetans, including foreign tourists and journalist, albeit only one (we exclude the population of police and military),
2. and the size of Lhasa,
3. after taking the current high penetration of camera equipped mobile phones,
4. and the natural enthusiasm of the protesters/rioters to record any evidence of Chinese atrocities into account,

I think that the above mentioned probability is extremely low (e.g., p=0.0001).

Given the fact (as far as I know) that no verifiable witness accounts, pictures or video footages have been provided by any independent sources even including the pro- T camp themselves,

the hypothesis/allegation has to be rejected.

Moreover, considering the likely motivation for the pro T camp to make the Chinese government more sinister, I suggest that the list provided by the pro T camp is at least greatly exaggerated, if not a total fabrication.

cc said...

To be more precise, I don't think we (at least myself) are in the position to find out the truth as to what really happened, but we perhaps can find out with a fairly good amount of confidence what did not happen.

Therefore, let's find out what is false.

matteo said...

hello sun bin, i'm the anon, by the way my name is matteo, here is a link from phayul http://www.phayul.com/news/article.aspx?id=20003&article=Tibet%3A+schoolchildren+among+dead+in+Chinese+police+%E2%80%98massacre%E2%80%99

where they say a 16 years old girl, Lhundup Tso, was killed by chinese police in Ngaba County on the 16th.
I hope someone sooner or later will be able to tell us the truth.

here is a comment i wrote regarding the Tibetan Independence Movement, it's in Italian but there are a lot of useful links regarding that matter.
http://cinasconosciuta.blogspot.com/2008/04/ripercorrere-le-tappe-della-crisi-in.html

cc said...

matteo,

It is impossible to draw any conclusion based on the information provided by that article. Several points need to be noted:
1. The website seems not to be independent (pro-T)
2. The article has a picture of "the girl" when she was alive, but does not show a picture after she was "shot dead".

The article claims that "Lying nearby was her fellow pupil at Aba Tibetan middle school, a 17-year-old named Norbu, who had been taken to the monastery and photographed along with five other victims. His thin torso was smeared with blood and there was a bullet hole in his chest."

and then,

"The only available picture of Tso shows her very much alive."

This is against common sense. The "dead boy" (and five others) was photographed, why wasn't this "dead girl"? Was there any reason that she was singled out not to be photographed?

Again, to me, it is highly unlikely that her "dead body" was not photographed by the pro-T camp as an evidence.

I applied the same common sense/logic to draw a conclusion on the authenticity of the death list earlier. I think the same can be followed here as well.

Another important point missing from the article is that under what circumstances that "the police opened fire to disperse the crowd".

For example, did the police opened fire directly at the crowd to disperse the crowd immediately when they were confronted?

The article certainly attempts to make its readers believe this is what happened. However, it does not rule out other scenarios.

"Tso is said to have been among 2,500 Tibetans, led by monks, who marched towards the local government headquarters...and were confronted by about 200 members of the People’s Armed Police, in combat kit and carrying machineguns."

1. the police fired warning shots to disperse the crowd, the crowd dispersed.
2. the police fired warning shots to disperse the crowd, but the crowd neither dispersed nor moved forward. The police then fired at the crowd.
3. the police fired warning shots to disperse the crowd, but the crowed ignored the warning shots and moved forward. The police then fired at the crowd.

Also, was anybody in this 2500 crowd armed? If so, how many were armed? What weapons were carried? Were they used?

I simply cannot verify this allegation of death. Let alone I know what happened exactly that led to this death, if the death is ever proved.

In fact, the article itself says that "They fear it MAY be one of several carried out by Chinese armed police in an attempt to put down the largest Tibetan uprising in almost 20 years."

matteo said...

hello sun bin, cc, and ev'one else

i got some more points regarding this matter:

-last sunday cctv4 news showed a report where they went to the places indicated by the list and found no evidence of the people mentioned, they checked houkos and various certificates (this has to be taken with a grain of salt coming from cctv)
-list was not updated since 26th march, with the exception of the 4 more names, as you said. as of today, no MSM has published the list, as far as i know
-as you point out, in the past the accuracy of similar CTA claims has already been contested.
-as you also noticed, tibet.net was not accesible (from anywhere in the world) since april 11th. CTA's webmaster, through RSF, argues that it must have been an hacker. since april the 14th the site is accessible with a different domain, tibetgov.net.
but i found a german site (google cached on april the 3rd)where there is a letter dated march the 28th.in this letter it is written that since april the TGiE website will change name...
so it seems like the webmaster is inclined to lie to discredit his "enemy"....
if you are interested, link and detail are on this page:

http://cinasconosciuta.blogspot.com/2008/04/hacker-o-bufala.html

italian but translatable directly by babelfish (yes i stole your gadget ; )

Sun Bin said...

matteo,

thanks.

if you installed google toolbar, there is a button to translate the whole page into english now (not sure if you can configure to other language)

matteo said...

thanks sun-bin, very interesting update.
By the way, regarding the daily kos article, on my blog i provided a link between Karma Yeshi [member of the tibetan government in exile, supporter of National Democratic Party of Tibet, editor of the "voice of tibet" (funded by ned)] and dr. gene sharp (direct non-violent action supporter whose manuals were used in the "coloured revolution" in East Europe, engineered by ned.

and what do you think about tibet.net (source of the victim list) claims of an hacker attack on their site on the 11 april, for which they were forced to change domain (to tibetgov.net) when a german girl who was recently in dharamsala, on the 28 march already wrote that the site will change to tibetgov.net in april?
i think it's an hard blow to the reputation of tibet.net (official site of the Tibetan central Amministration)...

Sun Bin said...

@matteo,

sorry i do not know much about tibet.net or these sites/organisations.

regarding that article. here is my view
1) we all know RFA and VOA are as political (and biase) as CCTV
2) i am sure they would provide a kick/boost to achieve those objectives (which seems to make their own sense understand the cold war ideological assumptions)
3) however, how the event actually played out, is perhaps hard to be engineered by any single mind/organization.

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