2006-09-16

Geo-stats Sep1-14

After the unblocking of blogspot in mainland China, we have more reliable site stat data. Below is the numbers for Sep 1-14. See also previous data (Apr-Jul) and (Apr-May) for comparison.


Geography
Visits
Apr-Jul Diff
1
USA

28.9%
37.0% 8.1%
2
China (PR)

14.6%
0.4% -14.2%
3
HK SAR

13.7%
14.7% 1.0%
4
UK

6.0%
5.5% -0.5%
5
Canada

4.1%
5.8% 1.7%
6
Australia

3.9%
4.4% 0.5%
7
Taiwan

3.4%
3.5% 0.1%
8
Singapore

3.3%
4.6% 1.3%
9
Japan

1.9%
3.5% 1.6%
10
India

1.8%
1.8% 0.0%
11 S Korea
1.5%
1.4% 0.0%
12
Malaysia

1.4%
1.6% 0.2%
13
Germany

1.0%
1.7% 0.7%
14
Netherlands

0.9%
1.0% 0.2%
15
Thailand

0.9%
0.5% -0.4%

As can be seen, the opening of GFW in the mainland has spared at least 8% of the readers the trouble of detouring via proxy based in USA, and maybe via Canada, Singapore, Japan as well. This confirmed my hypothesis earlier.

The language system (OS) are aligned with the geo-stats now.


Geography
Visits
1 English
61.2%
2
zh-cn (Chinese simplified)

14.9%
3
zh-tw (Chinese traditional)

13.0%
4
ja (Japanese)

1.6%
5
en (English)

1.4%
6
ko (Korean)

1.4%
7
es (Spanish)

1.1%
8
de (German)

0.9%
9
fr (French)

0.8%
10
ru (Russian)

0.7%

  • One small surprise is that zh-cn % almost exactly equal that of mainland visitors. (I expected a significant number of visitors inside PRC use English OS, apparently I was wrong.)
  • For traditional Chinese OS (HK+Taiwan), the numbers are also consistent, with about 4% all visitors (i.e. 1/4 of HK+Taiwan) using English OS.
Total number of countries/areas reached 136 (124 in Jul 25, but the number below is not 12, as there maybe some redefinition such as Montenegro, Europe, "not set" and "satellite ISP", -- see previous post). Welcome new readers (most of them probably come here on google search or wiki link to my GDP/pop-scaled map post):
  • Bahamas, Nicaragua, Zambia, Burkina Faso (formerly Upper Volta), Gambia, Guyana, Mauritius, Pakistan
Of course, there is map.

Categories:

2006-09-13

Some cool Japanese Commercials

In our neighboring countries in NE Asia, I love N Korea Mass Game, S Korean movies, and Japanese CM (commerical). I think the Japanese are among the most creative nation in marketing and commerialization in this world. The Tarako phenonmenon is the most recent example. I don't have to tell you about Tamagochi and Hello Kitty, product and CM innovation of TOTO Toilet, and more recently, creative teaching of Zuiikin English. See how to market a simple innovation of Mentaiko Spaghetti (Spicy cod Roe - represented by the little cuties in the videos. Its success is probably more a result of the hypnotic Young Pioneer hymn like theme song) here




We all have something to learn from Japan, one of the most fascinating nation in this world. Yeah, they committed big crimes from 140 to 60 years ago. There are still perhaps quite a few of bigots, some even running its goverment. But this country has a lot of stuffs you would love.

---
Here are a few of my fav's, each representative of its own class, brilliant, innovative, humorous, creepy, anti-authority/unconventional/breaking taboo.

The classic: Hungry? Cup Noodle!

More in the series
1 Mammoth, 2 Rhino, 3 Giraffe, 4 Seafood, 5 Ostrich, 6 Monster?

Gatsby Hair-dye -- "life is colorful... men also colorful...." (in Japanese the word "colorful" also means "many different types"


Fanta -- helplessness of pupils in each class in the 3rd grade with their teachers, each flavor of Fanta comes to rescue


Wacoal, Up! Up!


I'm loving it!


Related link:
1) TV in Japan's CM collections
2) 20 Asian video clips (Not all are from Japan, and not all are CM. I have also seen better ones. But this is a decent sampling.)
Categories:

2006-09-10

US-China Trade balance and RMB

Tyler Cowen has a nice piece on NYT today (cached below), speaking out the obvious about RMB and US trade balance.
  • "The United States should not be spending its international political capital on yuan revaluation, which is at best a nonevent."
Harvard's Greg Mankiw's agrees. Brad DeLong commented on a highly hypothetical worse case what-if scenario of China stop buying US treasury. He perhaps worried too much.
  • 1) Where else would China realistically put the cash? The weight of US Treasury in China's portfolio may drop gradually. But it will not be abrupt nor it will be.
  • 2) As Mankiw and DeLong both agreed, equoted, China is doing a big favor to the US, both by selling at a very low price and financing the US at very low interest rate. Even if you take the latter away, there is still the former. China did that not for charity, but because US provided what China needs: an opportunity to practice its capitalism and technology upgrade, and a low-risk option for investment. Fair trade in free market.
  • 3) Cowen is right in that, the revaluation, is therefore, a non-event for US. (Hence not worth the wasting of its political capital
In an ideal world, US may be able to assist or micro-manage China's economy, as Brad DeLong hoped. In reality, even the PRC government cannot control the rhythm of dragon heartbeat! Therefore, Cowen is spot on in that US should not try to micro-manage China. Instead, what US should do is to offer technical advice and warning to help China handle the challenge. In a globalized world economy, China's success in managing its economy has positive impact on US, and vice versa.

Brad Sester diagrees. But I do not think Cowen's conclusion and proposal contradicts with any of the facts in Brad's testimony. Because,
  • Brad's 4 points in his testimony
    1) "RMB significantly undervalued." I think RMB is undervalued. But how significant it is is a debated question, some said 40%, some said 10-15% a year ago. With the drift in the past 14 months it is now 5-10% vs 35%. The more relevant question is, what to do with it? or does it really matter what is done (to China, vs to US, vs to the world)?
    2) "China has 'heavily' intervened". Yes, any system other than free floating requires quite heavy intervention, if that is what "heavy" means. Again, I would say most of the impact/consequence (and risks) of the intervention are on China itself. If the world should worry, it should worry that China destabilizes itself and the consequence ripples through the world system
    3) "China's surplus generated impact on US financial system." Yes, low interest rate kept down by high demand on Treasury notes by China, Russia, OPEC countries, in the same order of magnitude. China isn't alone in this. Why picked China?
    4) "China's current account surplus need to be reduced for the sake of global economy". It is not obvious why china's current account surplus is neccessarily a bad thing. it certainly represents an inefficient allocation of capital/resource on china's part. It is not good for China. But the implication on US or the world is not that clear-cut. I think this is one of Cowen's key points.

    My take on Cowen is that his view is probably is similar to mine regrding the 4 points above, no fundamental disagreement, but somewaht different interpretation. The conclusions are
    1) taking into account the total impact (i wish someone with good access to the data can do a quantitative sum up) of US export, price inelastic segment of the import vs price elastic segment to US, the net effect of RMB reval on US-China merchandise trade may be quite insignificant, even though it may be in the same direction as Brad predicted
    2) as commentator Dor (in Brad's blogpost) pointed out, the job loss in US is tiny, 150k/150M =0.1%; if one takes into account the job creation/retention in Boeing/etc, it is even smaller.
    3) taking into account US business stakes in businesses in Chinese (eg eg iPOD produced in China sold to EU/Japan, KFC's profit in China market) and hence ths profit repatriated to US, the trade balance could narrow significantly. It is important to differentiate total "trade" (cashflow, including merchandise, service, investment, expatriate, etc) vs the often discussed "merchandise trade"

    Therefore,
    a) is it worthwhile to waste US political capital on an issue that is questionable to the overall US business/economic interests?
    b) it is not efficient for US to micro-manage China's economy, and micro-management from a distance often get things wrong or drive things opposite to one's original intention.
(To be continued)

---
China Is Big Trouble for the U.S. Balance of Trade, Right? Well, Not So Fast

By TYLER COWEN

Published: September 7, 2006

CONTRARY to popular opinion, China may be good for our trade balance. American consumers seem determined to spend money, and Chinese businessmen have made the bill cheaper.

It is not the case that China is simply draining the United States of money. Most of the growth in Chinese exports to the United States has come from switching manufacturing and assembly from other, more expensive, Asian countries. In 1985, China, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea accounted for 52.3 percent of America’s trade deficit. By 2005, this percentage had fallen to 40.9 percent, in part because of cost savings from buying Chinese.

From 1986 to 1988, Taiwan and South Korea accounted for 60 percent of American footwear imports; China was only 2 percent. By 2001, market positions had reversed; China produced about 60 percent of the total and Taiwan and South Korea about 2 percent. Toys and sporting goods show similar gains by the Chinese, again driven by lower prices. (For these and related figures, see “China’s Embrace of Globalization” by Lee Branstetter, professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University, and Nicholas R. Lardy, senior research associate at the Institute for International Economics, at http://www.nber.org/papers/w12373.)

American policy makers are nonetheless concerned about cheap Chinese imports. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. will visit China this month, in part to pressure the Chinese to allow their currency, the yuan or renminbi, to rise in value on world markets. C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Center for International Economics, has been calling for a revaluation of the yuan for years, in the hope that a more valuable currency will make Chinese exports more expensive.

The belief is that if the dollar has less value in China, Americans will spend less on Chinese products to offset the prices they pay per item. But even if the numbers work out so that the flow of dollars to China diminishes, American consumers will pay higher prices and see fewer goods from China. Yuan revaluation is unlikely to benefit the United States, even if it does lower its trade deficit.

The trade effects of a revaluation of the yuan are unlikely to be large, in part because many Chinese exporters specialize in assembly. China sends out money buying components like semiconductors and turns them into finished goods, thereby running a trade deficit with East Asia. A new and higher value for the yuan would largely be a wash for these activities. With a stronger currency, China would have a harder time selling its electronic goods, but this would be offset by its greater purchasing power over the semiconductors. It would not do much damage to the Chinese competitive position.

The Chinese keep the yuan low, relative to the dollar, by buying up United States Treasury securities; as of early 2006, the Chinese central bank held up to $470 billion in Treasury securities. This huge accumulation of relatively low-yielding assets is the investment strategy of risk-averse bureaucrats, but it may bring longer-term benefits. Those assets can someday be sold or otherwise transferred to underdiversified Chinese financial institutions. The accumulation gives the Chinese a stake in American prosperity and signals that the Chinese are committed to long-term participation in the global economy. On the American side, the Treasury market is more liquid and the budget deficit can be financed at lower cost.

The yuan should not, as matters stand, float freely with free capital movements. Large quantities of Chinese savings, currently restricted to the domestic currency, would probably flee the country, worsening the serious solvency problems at Chinese banks. The Chinese must first clean up their banking system before they can have free capital markets. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, a market-determined value for the yuan might well be lower than today’s exchange rate, not higher.

To the United States, the primary gains from yuan revaluation would come from the increased spending by Chinese consumers on American exports. But the Chinese are, and should be, extremely cautious. In addition to saving about 50 percent of their incomes, they are spending most of the rest on local basics, like food, cheap cars or education. Health care is a probable growth sector. China is still a poor country, and its potential to drive American export success is modest for the foreseeable future.

Revaluation advocates claim that the Chinese need a stronger currency to prevent their economy from “overheating.” China may indeed not be stable. But it is unlikely that the United States government can successfully micromanage another country of 1.3 billion people into a soft landing. Chinese economic data is very poor and Americans do not have a good record in advising transition economies. The Chinese recipe for economic growth, which encouraged exports, seems to be working, although it ran counter to efforts by American economists and policy makers to promote the privatization of state-owned companies.

The climb of the Chinese economy out of Communism and into prosperity has brought the world, and the United States, a free lunch. Consumer goods of many kinds are cheaper and the Chinese are likely to generate many scientific and technical innovations. Steering the value of the Chinese currency — from Washington — is unlikely to increase those gains. The United States should not be spending its international political capital on yuan revaluation, which is at best a nonevent.

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He is co-author of a blog at www.marginalrevolution.com. He can be reached at tcowen@gmu.edu.

Categories:

2006-09-08

"Feeling the China elephant" phenomenon 盲人摸象


The illustration is from the MOP discussion forum, a commentator posted in repsonse to Jessey Meng Guangmei's toilet-gate controversy (more details in Chinese).

The comic illustrates the Chinese proverb "Blind men feeling the elephant 盲人摸象" (which probably originated from India, and spread to China with Buddhism)
  • It was six men of Indostan
    To learning much inclined,
    Who went to see the Elephant
    (Thought all of them were blind).
    That each by observation
    Might satisfy his mind.

         II
    The FIRST approached the Elephant
    And happening to fall
    Against his broad and sturdy side
    At once began to bawl:
    'God bless me, but the Elephant
    Is very like a wall!'

         III
    The SECOND, feeling of the tusk,
    Cried 'Ho! What have we here
    So very round and smooth and sharp?
    To me 'tis mightly clear
    This wonder of an Elephant
    Is very like a spear.'

         IV
    The THIRD approached the animal,
    And happening to take
    The squirming trunk within his hands,
    Thus boldly up and spake:
    'I see, 'quoth he, 'the Elephant
    Is very like a snake!'

         V
    The FOURTH reached out his eager hand,
    And felt about the knee,
    'What most this wondrous beast is like
    Is mightly plain, 'quoth he:
    'Tis clear enough the Elephant
    Is very like a tree!'

         VI
    The FIFTH, who chanced to touch the ear,
    Said: 'E'en the blindest man
    Can tell what this resembles most,
    Deny the fact who can,
    This marvel of an Elephant
    Is very like a fan!'

         VII
    The SIXTH no sooner had begun
    About the beast to grope,
    Than, seizing on the swinging tail
    That fell within his scope,
    'I see, 'quoth he, 'the Elephant
    Is very like a rope!'

         VIII
    And so these men of Indostan
    Disputed loud and long,
    Each in his own opinion
    Exceeding stiff and strong.
    Though each was partly in the right
    And all were in the wrong.

         IX
    So, oft in theologic wars
    The disputants, I ween,
    Rail on in utter ignorance
    Of what each other mean
    And prate about an Elephant
    Not one of them has seen!
The comic above shows Meng saying this
  • "The elephant, YOU KNOW, is jut one rope...
  • And, it feels very rough to my hand...
  • Judging from my many years of modeling, talk show hosting, and acting experiences, the elephant, is just like a rope and nothing more."
I do not have anything more insightful to say about the constroversy around Ms Meng than already discussed in sites like the Mop, except these minor tidbits,
  1. Meng handled the response extremely poorly (threatening to sue) for something which could have been dealt with much easier (the more vicious host Li Jing simply apologized and no one picked on her);
  2. There are some inconsistencies which illustrates Meng's carelessness (e.g. She said People's Square when mentioning the toilets on July/1/1997, but earlier said she went to Beijing on that day. The Chinese poster concluded she meant to say TAM in BJ) - the original videos are quite hilarious, though the facts discussed often dated and even wrong, but what do you expect from a cheap talk show;
  3. For netizen comments from both camps see Mop, which also asked commentator to identify themselves on the 2 opposite camps (optionally) and selected/organized representative arguments from both sides. I think this approach is ingenious and will be adopted by many content sites, forums and even blogs which draw a lot of comments.
  4. To be fair to Ms Meng, when the host Li Jing pressed about rumours of artists being kidnapped or coerced by 'triad gangsters' in mainland, Meng and the other 2 guests spoke the truth in defense of the mainland, saying this never happens in major cities such as Shanghai/Beijing, and that even in smaller cities it is unorganized coercion or business disputes at worst.
What I want to talk about here is the ubiquitous phenomenon in China-related internet forum and blogs written in English, the phenomenon of "Feeling the China elephant". Such phenomenon is understandable, given Ms Meng, who has spent over 10 years in mainland China and HK, and a native speaker in Chinese, still makes confusing mistakes ranging from names of locations to the sensitivies of mainland Chinese audiences.

China is an enormous country, both geographically and demographically. Everyone watching China, including this blogger, is trying to feel his elephant with a partial view. In the controversial talk show Meng starred, there is a discussion about how each province has its own celebrities, and a provincial celebrities is hardly recognized in other part of China. This illustrates the fragmentation pretty well.

It is also very easy to reach an absurd conclusion if one is not careful. An example would be the Koguryo history controversy. While a simple minded reader may react to China's incorporating Koguryo into its own national history as a sign for soveriegnty ambition on the whole of Korea peninsula, the reality is that PR China was only being defensive on the current boundary in which there are a few millions of Korean minorities and a few very important ancient Koguryo heritage sites, using a rather clumsy backward projection of its current geography and demography as one of its historic views.

Therefore, it is important to remember how incomplete our eye sights are, and always look for different POV for comparison. In addition, we need to note everyone, this blogger included, is biased in his/her own way, given what s/he saw, read, heard, and experienced. (related quote: as Thomas Barnett said, "Chinese like the Western look because it's rare there, but the same logic holds true for China's appeal to the rest of the world.")

There are, of course, people who push their own agendas, by presenting distorted/selected facts, decorated with subjective false logic. They are trying to tell you the elephant looks like a rope even though they themselves see more than that. The often used trick is to quote isolated and unsubstantiated cases and try to mislead readers into over-generalization. Examples are revealed in the following posts/comments 偉大的反共文豪, 文化郭芙, Quacking Canard.
Categories:

2006-09-05

Perturbation theory, diversion vs dam-building

Professor Steven Cheung wrote in his new piece "Buddha-Mountain's attempt in making Buddha headache" 佛山试制大头佛 describing how the new policy in Foshan (literally, Buddha-Mountain) City in Guangdong, in an attempt to cool the property market, could backfire (in Cantonese, creating a headache for the Buddha).

I will first summarize Cheung's essay, [inserting my own opinion in square brackets]. Then I will make a few brief comments

---
Cheung's essay

1) Case of Foshan and Guangzhou

Background: Foshan and Guangzhou recently imposed a price cap on housing projects in certain areas in their cities. RMB3000/m2 for Foshan and RMB6000/m2 for Guangzhou. Granted, the price cap is above the current market prices. But there is still consequence to the market, as the market is not static.

Quiz: If the price is capped below market, what will be the consequences?

Answers:
  1. Auction price for land will be lower, because developers will calculate the price of land they are willing to pay based on the price of apartments they can sell for. However, the auction price will be higher than the theoretical price (i.e. using the cost model, discount rate, assuming the same profit margins, using selling price as input to calculate the cost of land). This is because developers will squeeze the cost of construction/development, including labor, materials, etc. Such "cost control" will very likely lead to low quality of the buildings, perhaps to an extent that safety parameters are compromised
      [Another example of price manipulation: if developer wants to price above market, it would have to inject many freebies, such as HK0.5M restauurant/spa coupons in Bel Air Projects of PCCW in HK -S]
  2. Since second hand apartments are not under price control, when the market goes up, it is likely that second hand apartments will be priced higher than the caps. However, if the market stays flat, second hand apartment price will not go up. This is because the new units are priced at the market already- the value matches the price as a result of "cost control" in point (1)
      [In the former case, developers and insiders may set up affiliate companies and sell all the apartments to these affiliates. The the affiliates will sell to the public at market price. Alternatively, there may be a coupon market for queuing position and right to buy (筹) such that the net price paid by consumer (i.e. including the right to buy) is the market price. In these situations, the prices of the units are slightly higher than the market price had the price cap regulation not been imposed. Because the consumer also pay for the cost of the affiliate/agent arrangements - precsiely the opposite of the intention of the regulators - S]
  3. Since the information channel/mediator of the market (i.e. price) has been distorted, the market is not functioning at its optimal efficiency. There will be waste and inefficiencies everywhere
2) Case of Beijing

Background: Beijing is contemplating restricting the number of large size units built, i.e. only 30% of new units can exceed 90m2. In guangzhou, 2 newly auctioned lots already specified that the areas of units cannot exceed 90m2. [Apparently an effort to ensure more supply with the same amount of floor size -S]

Implications:
  1. Price drop in medium and small units (under 90m2); rise for large units [supply distorted]
  2. Descrease in land price (so will overall wealth of the nation), because the market is distorted and land use is not optimal
  3. More units of 90m2 will be build (less of 70-80m2), also more at 130-250m2 cannibalizing on 90-120m2 market segment.
      [(a) this illustrates point 2 above of sub-optimum land use (b) developers will respond by building adjacent units of, e.g. 80m2 and 40m2, separated by a cheap and easily torn down wall, and sell them in bundle. Another way that waste of resources is resulted (c) This phenomenon has already be demonstrated by HK's world record in Rolls-Royce and Mercedes-Benz, in per km road or per capita measures, as tariff (and gasoline tax) deems cheap cars less desirable, like the 90-120 m2 units - S]
  4. Social stratification more pronounced, as the boundary of social class is characterized by more pronounced market segmentation and is highly visible
---

Cheung illustrated in these cases why one should be careful in intervening the market. To be sure, intervention is almost always a bad thing, as you are trying to counter the force of nature, and distort the natural equilibrium/optimum points of the market. Therefore, all directives by human beings are, in reality, perturbations. Once we realize how limited our power is, we know where our strategy should focus on, i.e., "leveraging". This applies to economic, business and even political and military maneuvers.

A good analogy is illustrated by the lesson of Dujiangyan, "Diverting the water flow is always a better solution than building a dam when it comes to flood control". I would illustrate this principle with 2 examples below
  1. Cheung's earlier suggestion of a lesser-evil option for discouraging speculative activities with a tax imposed on un-used and un-leased empty apartment unit. The measure is very specific and does not affect the normal market functions, it only discourages profiteering by changing hands, but does not penalize normal transactions based on "need" (i.e. shorting holding period before changing hands, with no tax penalty). However, as Cheung said, it is only a less-evil/second-best option because some of the changing-hand transaction (that could be held ,unexpectedly, longer than planned) are legitimate market activities.
  2. China's commodity negotiation strategy (souce: FT): FT reports that China was trying to leverage its volume to bargain for a better price in commodity market. However, volume is only a secondary factor in determining price. i.e. it only works if you have a credible alternative (or if the sellers are really divided). Such tactics are as good as dam building. One plausible "diversion" tactic would be top tackle the issue from another facet, e.g., first negotiate for long term commodity contracts in US$ and then let the RMB appreciate. (but there are side-effects/implications for RMB appreciation)

Categories:

2006-09-04

Nazca lines in Taipei


According to Etoday, there is a set of Nazca lines in Taipei all these times. The lines will be brought out in the coming weeks when protestors fill the respective streets.
  • 范可欽說明,以景福門為支點,仁愛路、信義路與中山南路成為設出的三條線,就像是「手拿著代表規矩的『圓規』」,在總統府前立下一個規矩;也有人說像是個手握單刀的原住民勇士,準備砍下貪腐的政權;甚至有人形容,就像是一個裁判比出「出局」的手勢,遠看更像是一個巨大的倒扁手勢
  • "Fan said, using Jing Fu Gate as the fulcrum, Jen Ai Road, Hsin Yi Road and Chungshan South Road as three protruding lines, the graph looks like a "hand holding a compass" representing the rules and order in front of the presidential palace. Some others said the figure is a totem of an aborigine holding a knife, ready to chop off a corrupted government...
A pretty cool marketing gimmick. I am not quite sure how effective it will become. But if it manages to get into the Guiness Book, maybe this mass movement could leave some long lasting footprint to history and succeed in embarassing the target of the protests.

Street names and legends below


---
Update 9/9 Here is the actual picture (Apple Daily TW)

Categories:

2006-09-01

Another surprise detour by Chen Shui Bian?

There are signs that Taiwan's Chen Shui-bian is planning for another surprise detour next week. He has surpised us before.

Here is the flight plan and mileage for his trip
  • TPE (25°04'40"N 121°13'58"E) ROR (07°22'02"N 134°32'39"E) 1502 mi
  • ROR (07°22'02"N 134°32'39"E) INU (00°32'51"S 166°55'09"E) 2299 mi
  • INU (00°32'51"S 166°55'09"E) GUM (13°29'00"N 144°47'46"E) 1797 mi
  • GUM (13°29'00"N 144°47'46"E) TPE (25°04'40"N 121°13'58"E) 1729 mi
  • Total 4 segment path: 7327 mi
What is intriguing is his obsessiveness on using "Air-force 1" (Commonly mocked as "Aquafresh-1" 牙膏一號 see picture above). Even after US government officially rejected AF1's request to land on Guam (AF1 is painted with ROC flag but CI plane has a "neutral" plum blossum logo), he still wanted to use it on the first leg of his trip, which only represents about 20% of his total mileage. He and his aides then devised an elaborate flight plan (see map) to
  1. Send the empty AF-1 back from Palau to Taipei
  2. Summon another empty CI plane (CI-2)
  3. Send some of the reporters back from Palau to Taipei with a Far Eastern (commerical) flight (because Nauru is such a small nation, with less than 10k people, half the media/business team would skip it)
  4. Use 2 CI planes to get from Palau to Nauru, because the the short runway in Nauru only permits 40% passenger load for the 737
  5. Fly one empty plane (CI-2) back from Nauru to Taipei, use the other plane for the Nauru-Guam-Taipei "detour diplomacy" trip
  6. Total empty segments: AF1 Palau-Taipei; CI-1 and CI-2 Taipei-Palau; CI-2 Nauru-Guam-Taipei

The total cost for this elaborate arrangement will be over NT$27M (i.e. US$0.9M), vs about NTD 7-8M had he used the simple plan of
  • one flight throughout CI-1 Taipei-Palau-Nauru-Guam-Taipei
  • commission commerical plane from Nauru for the Palau-Guam segment (After all, Taipei spent US$10M to subsidize Nauru's airline. It is very likely Nauru would do this for free, which could save Taipei perhaps another NT$1M)
Chen Shui Bian has been using AF-1 in his domestic trips extensively. So this is no new gadget to him. It is really puzzling that he would prefer to spend 200% (US$0.6M) more just to enjoy the AF-1 for 20% of his trip. It makes no economic sense. It does not help his falling approval rating at all.

As a result, various conspiracy theories emerged. Among them Chen was alleged of planning his exile with this trip (AF-1 can carry his secret assets). Given Chen's character of "never give up" and obsesssion for power, I strongly doubt such theory.

Discarding the exile theory, the current plan is a very strange one, both economically and politically. More plausible explanations include
  • Chen is planning another surprise, such as detour, because he now highly distrust the CI staff (probably some leak over his plan to stop by Lebanon/Libya in his May trip)
  • Some important 'freight' is transported on AF-1 from Taipei-Palau (perhaps some crucial "evidence" related to the State Affair Budget, that the country in question is Palau?)
Either this, i.e., some major surprise on Sep 3rd, or we can only conclude that Chen Shuibain has lost his mind, because the waste of US$0.6M (NT$18M) equals 1/3-1/2 the amount of the scandulous "State Affair Budget" claimed with fictitious receipts. The average "air-ticket" cost for the 150 people is about $6k/passenger, enough for a First Class rounder trip retail ticket for TPE-NYC.

I believe it is the former. We shall to find out in a few days.

Update: TVBS talk show on the trip

Categories:

2006/08 Reading list archive (Final)

This is the archive of the reading list on the side-bar. It is just a random collection of items I have read recently. It does not neccessarily have to represent my view (in fact, I may disagree with some of the POV), but I think they are interesting on their own. I do not think I am doing a linkfest, which I thought should have certain theme or professed value, it is simply a slightly organized (and slected) form of my de.licio.us.

There will be one archive per month, so I will be moving items from the side-bar into this post through this month, and create another post in September

China

Rest of Asia


World

Strategy

Misc

Places I have been to

Inspired by The 88s.

Places I have visited
  • Red: more than once, overnight each time, knows the streets without a map
  • Blue: overnight, at least 12 hours
  • Purple: spent at least 6 hours during the day (i.e. outside an office), ate meals, saw the cities/talked to people -- "driving by" or "airport transit" does not count
  • Brown: various places in the area (mainly leisure travelling), more than 24 hours but not neccessarily in one specific location
Click image to see details
MyMaps at MapBuilder.net
Categories: