CATO's Ted Carpenter on strait relationship

Ted Carpenter, the VP of Cato Institute, expressed his view on the strait relationship. He is largely right, except some minor points. e.g. CCP's objective today is not immediate re-unification. They know it is impossible. All they wanted is to avoid formal breaking off of the island.

I wish the leaders in Zhongnanhai would listen to this
  • Until now, Beijing has been able to delude itself that the "Taiwan problem" is all due to President Chen and the DPP. At some point, the Beijing regime will have to realize that its quarrel is really with the bulk of the Taiwanese people.



David said...

Fair article, but it gives me the impression that either Carpenter is rather naive, or he thinks the CCP is naive.

I'm sure Beijing doesn't really think CSB is *the* problem - but they also know he makes a wonderful scapegoat. I'm also sure that they've been listening very carefully to what Ma's been saying, and have conciously decided to let some of his comments slide ... Ma has very clearly said: 1) It's up to Taiwan's people to decide. 2) China must become a democracy before unification. 3) China should 'own up' to Tiananmen if they're serious about unification. 4) "One Country, Two systems" is not suitable for Taiwan.

Beijing have heard all that, and could have taken offense, but didn't. Why? Not because they have unrealistic expectations of what a KMT-led Taiwan would do, but because they know that a KMT-led Taiwan is much better for them than the alternative.

Sun Bin said...


carpenter's comment could be seen as quite simplistic. but the common sense line is something either CCP does not get or refuse to accept, "that it is the people in Taiwan who are important and there is some fundamental problem in the CCP approach....even though it had been improved significantly recently".

you are also right that MYJ did not say anything new in US that CCP has not heard before (though it may be new to US based observers like Carpenter).
MYJ is the 'less evil' for CCP. accepting MYJ as such means CCP know that it has no better alternative.
OTOH, MYJ always need DPP if he is going to any discussion/negotiation with CCP, DPP is his bargaining chip, "yield to my request or you have to deal with these people".

Sun Bin said...

Chinese summary of the Cato essay





【中央社记者林琳纽约十二日专电】美国智库“卡都研究所”(Cato Institute)学者卡本特(Ted GalenCarpenter)指出,中国如果寄望接任陈水扁的台湾总统对两岸统一态度会比较温和,就打错了算盘,因为不论谁担任台湾总统,多数人民绝不会接受台湾与一个共产政权统一。

卡本特发表在华尔街日报的评论指出,北京似乎相信梢园岩磺辛桨都涞奈侍舛脊榫逃诔滤庾芡臣八舻拿窠场K裕本┗崛戎杂谙蚬竦呈竞茫踔料嘈牛绻懔惆四曜芡炒笱》炊缘呈ぱ。ㄍ宸掷胫饕宓钠栈崧砩舷拧U庖步馐土巳ツ昵肮竦持飨椒梦蚀舐绞被竦酶吖娓窠哟脑颉A椒梦蚀舐绞痹硎竟竦持铝τ谥占耐骋弧?p> 国民党主席马英九最近访美期间发表和连战类似的言论,也获得北京的称道。马英九不只谈到终极统一,同时也建议两岸达成维持现状的暂时协议,以降低紧张情势。






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