2006-04-27

Ohmae on Taiwan

Kenichi Ohmae, ex-McKinsey partner and business strategist, visited Taiwan recently. His view
  • Many political leaders in Taiwan, lack a world outlook. They should give up their idea of the rule of ideology and pay more attention to Taiwan's economic development...
  • Ohmae said he never believes China would attack Taiwan. "If it did," Ohmae was quoted as saying, "the Chinese economy would die, because its driving force and bursting power are dependent on the management of Taiwan businessmen (in China).
    "President Chen seems unaware of this relationship, and instead believes the Taiwan businessmen are helping the Chinese mainland.
    "As a consequence, he has adopted a policy of confrontation.
    "That is a passe idea."
The cost for a strait war is indeed too huge for the mainland, and for the CCP regime, as economy is where its "legitimacy" is based on. This is not only because of the retreat of "business management and technology" of Taiwan investment in the mainland. It is about the general political uncertainty for everybody who is doing business with mainland China today.

Too bad CSB refuses to see this simple truth. It is appalling how ideology can blind one's common sense.
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4 comments:

Siegfried said...

I guess CSB has only his and DPP's political interests in his mind. He won the elections using the ideology issues, and he won't give it up easily. Is CSB unaware of the relationship said above? I don't think so.

Sun Bin said...

That is also what I think.
so i carefully used the word he 'refuse to see', instead of 'failed to see'.
i could also say he 'chose to ignore'.

He does not put the interests of his people above that of his ideology/political interests. This is why I dispise him.
(I had thought very highly of him when he ran and won the mayor of Taipei back in 1994)

Michael Turton said...

ROFL. As Lee Tueng-hui pointed out, the S Koreans kept all that investment at home, and as a result, they are doing much better than Taiwan in trade with China. In the meantime Taiwan's income inequality worses, its capital is developing its worst enemy instead of building its own economy, and it performs more poorly than S Korea. Sure.

Investment in China is a really stupid idea, from every perspective.

Too bad CSB refuses to see this simple truth. It is appalling how ideology can blind one's common sense.

Look in the mirror, Sun Bin. If you weren't blinded by this irrational hatred of Chen that seems so prevalent among the pro-China crowd, you'd see that he and similarly-minded politicians are trying to save the island from being hollowed out and destroyed by China, as was LTH before him.

As for the idea that economic development is going to prevent an attack by China on Taiwan, that too is laughable. Tight economic integration has never prevented wars in the past, and isn't going to prevent one today. There's nothing more naive than a Realpolitik type who thinks that because he's a hardass he must be right.

Michael

Sun Bin said...

I saw your Lee Tenghui article. LTH has no credibility to me, regarding economic matters. He has a clear political agenda. (I do respect his contribution in Taiwan's democratization, however. In addition, Lee Tenghui has done a better job than CSB, partly because he is more experienced and he has to yield to the pro-blue camp inside KMT then)

If you really look at the numbers. LTH is wrong. SK invested as much as Taiwan in mainland China, esp in the past 5 years. In addition, SK let its business to decide what to invest and what not. SK's cost when investing in China is also much lower (direct flight, no govt harassment, e.g.)

p.s.
1. you are wrong about my opinion on CSB. I was an admirer of him when he was and before he was elected Taipei mayor. I told my friends in Taiwan I wished him win and wanted him win in 1994 - my friends, many pan-green, were more pessimistic than me back then.
again, i maintain my judgment. CSB let his personal (political) interests blurred his decision, and put the interests of the people lower in his list. therefore, this makes him just any selfish politician, no different from Lien Chan or James Soong, both of which I also dispise.
2. economic development. yes, it will greatly reduce the motivation for conflict. i am not jsut talking about economic relationship across the strait. i am talking about the general integration of China's economy into the world.