2006-06-11

democracy and cat theory


Chen as Bao Zheng in his 2000 campaign ad

Related: 安替:昔日的邱毅?今日的陈水扁?只有制度,而不是圣人,才能真正除恶扬善

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“It doesn’t matter,” Deng Xiaoping said, “whether a cat is white or black. If it catches the mouse, it is a good cat.”

The reason I am a big fan of Deng XP's "cat theory" is that only undisputable and quantifiable restuls are credible measures for the effectiveness of any idea, action, or strategy, or theory, in business, politics or our daily lives.

HK commentator Wang Anran once said, "The litmus test for the real practice of the idea of democracy, is that people shall have the right to recall the leader, and that they are not intimidated when making such request. To implement democracy, it is not [just] about a system, [the system is only a means to the end] more important is that people's power shall be strong enough to recall an incompetent leader, without having to wait until his term ends. US has exercised democracy in this form, the Phillipines, Indonesia also have done this. So should HK!..."
  • 真正的民主理念,是人民有权罢免国家的领导人,而且不怕提出这个诉求。要落实民主,不是一个制度,而是人民的力量真的足以使到无能的领导人下台,不必等到他的任期届满。美国有这个经验,菲律宾、印尼也有这经验,香港也一样可以有这经验!......这经验是:将一个无能的领导人赶下台来。
The people's power in HK finally succeeded in March 2005. True, HK does not have the system (suffrage) as Taiwan. We waited almost 2 full years. But people's voice has gradually been heeded since we voted with our feet on July 1st, 2003. Since Tung's stepping down, the SAR regime, and the Beijing Regime, paid a lot more attention to the people. A major step forward for HK's democratic development, albeit there are a lot more to go (which unfortunately has been largely overlooked/discounted by the democrats). Having been denied the system, people in HK has achieved what we can possibly achieve.

Democracy in the Chinese language means "Determined by people" literally,which slightly differs from (but arguably more broadly defined) than the Greek/English definition. So the more that people can determine what they want, the closer we are toward a democracy. It doesn't matter if we take the UK, US, French or German system. The system guarantees that we have the pathways to practice democracy. But no system is perfect. Results are objective and undisputable.

Is Taiwan more advanced in democratic development than HK? Can the Taiwanese people proudly shout over the strait that "we mee every test of democracy?" Will the other regime applaud if democracy prevail in Taiwan? or will it be very afraid? We will see in the next few months.

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Related: Apple Daily Editorial (Jun 7)

Editorial: 扁辭職是最佳方案

股市禿鷹案,昨天金檢局前局長李進誠遭判10年徒刑;同時,台北地檢署偵結全民電通掏空案,民進黨大老、海基會副董事長張俊宏被求刑7年。民進黨當局弊案連結,上下交征利,怎麼向全民交代?

不應託辭扁未涉案
泛藍現在的策略是罷免、倒閣交互運用,務必扳倒扁當局。馬英九也鬆口同意罷免。可是民進黨高層一致保駕護航,主張不應提罷免案,因為門檻過高,肯定不過關,不該浪費資源,造成政治動盪,不利國家發展。至於倒閣,民進黨揚言倒閣就解散國會,重選立委須按新制,就是113席和單一選區兩票制,嚇阻立委不敢倒閣,尤其親民黨等小黨,認為倒閣與重選立委是消滅他們的陰謀。
我們認為,罷免和倒閣是在野黨的《憲法》權力,無可厚非。如果民意厭惡扁政府,而貪瀆案又證據確鑿,即使過不了高門檻,也應反映民意,明知不可為而為,盡在野黨的責任。倒閣問題複雜,但也是表達民意不滿的另一途徑。再不就是上街示威。三管齊下,即使扳不倒扁,也讓他明確了解民意對他的反感;否則又搞以前那套轉移、斷尾的老把戲,走過場了事,等事過境遷,又日久玩生,故態復萌。
民進黨以扁本人未涉違法為由,力抗罷免和辭職的呼聲,實在牽強。總統辭職並不僅以違法為要件,道德瑕疵和家人的玩法弄權,領導權威破產,信任瓦解都是總統必須引咎辭職的理由。

選擇傷害最小方案
扁前幾天放話說可以考慮組聯合內閣或在野黨組閣。這當然違反他權力下放給蘇貞昌的諾言;可是也許可以幫他度過難關,也促成泛藍的內訌或分裂;可是會更傷害綠色選民的心,對08年大選弊多於利。目前藍綠糾葛相纏,任何對策都既傷人也傷己,沒有萬全之策。政客們如果有良心,就選擇對國家傷害最小的方案。
目前,還在等待拉扁下馬的最後一擊。其實弊案很多,知悉的人應多多爆料,好讓扁死了懶驢打滾和僥倖之心。畢竟扁辭職是社會和經濟代價最小的選擇,比罷免和倒閣溫和節省得多,也有利於民主慣例的形塑。

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Ming Pao Op-ed
歐陽五﹕阿扁堅拒下台的背後
【明報專訊】6月5日,台北股市遭遇「黑色星期一」,八大類股齊跌,指數重挫244點。

同一天,民進黨新「鐵三角」蘇貞昌、游錫、柯建銘在台北喜來登大飯店聚餐,遭遇不明火警,虛驚一場。

而在陳水扁的故鄉台南市,民進黨基層群眾罕有地加入嗆扁聲浪,首日就有上千人連署,要求陳水扁下台。

這三件事,並非完全不相干。聯想到近日台南接連發生的兩起有感地震,島內坊間盛行的「呂秀蓮將代理總統」等傳言,似乎都印證出台灣政局走向的高度不確定性。

在「駙馬爺」趙建銘遭羈押的這些日子裏,台灣民選領導人陳水扁坐困愁城。他宣示權力下放,砍掉左右手馬永成、林錦昌,並讓「國安會」兩位副秘書長去職,但並未如在野黨領袖和輿論所期望的那樣,「知所進退、主動下台」。觀察家分析,阿扁堅拒下台,原因複雜,大致有三﹕

1. 眷戀權力,更擔心失去權力。一旦提前去職,對於阿扁來說,將失去最大、最有效的保護傘,「總統府」、「第一家庭」、「第一親家」涉嫌的種種弊案將浮出水面,無所遁形。且,民眾疑慮重重的「三一九槍擊案」也有可能重新提上日程被追究偵緝。

2. 體制因素,奈他不何。歷經李登輝、陳水扁十餘年的主導,台灣的「雙首長制」明顯偏向「總統制」,「總統」雖大權在握,卻有權無責。依現行憲政體制,其地位很難撼動,「罷免」門檻特別高,「倒閣」存在大風險。對於在野黨,特別是諳熟法律卻又書生氣有餘、手段不足的馬英九來說,很難真正有所作為,「謀定後動」有其難言之隱。

3. 對弊案的可能控制。上台6年,阿扁對媒體、軍隊墨甚深,檢調也難言中立。檢調這次約談趙建銘,某種程度是順應民意,但遲滯十餘日才進行,給趙建銘留出進入「總統府」聽阿扁「訓斥」的機會。陳水扁的「御用律師」顧立雄出馬、「法務部長」施茂林表示很快就結案的放話,都給人想像的空間。本周,台開案將偵結,趙建銘能否交保是輿論的一個焦點。但無論起訴與否,都可能無法真正傷及陳水扁和他的「第一家庭」。

台灣政局多變,阿扁能抗多久,有待繼續觀察。也許,真如台灣媒體所言,不是不報、時候未到,民意終會作出自己的裁決。吊詭的是,這些年台灣習慣以普選、民主傲視華人社會,但如此多的弊案,卻至今無法像其他一些國家和地區一樣讓「總統」下台。從深層意義上講,這也折射出「台灣式民主」還有很長的路要走,民主固然可貴,法治更要健全。
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