But people continue to err. How could the Jewish people, which has produced so many bright minds for our world and human civilization, and their state Israel, which has won so many wars brilliantly, made such a simple mistake this time?
Because Israel is strong, both physically and diplomatically, with the backing of the hegemon USA. Here is a statistical hypothesis: it is usually the weak who would choose the right strategy and the strong who tends to err.
A few reasons
- the strong has larger number of options, and hence more likely to err
- the weak does not have the short term option and is forced to consider the long term plan; when there is no other option within the context of war, the weak has to think big picture, and consider war in the bigger picture of politics and economics, and more
- straightforward and simple solutions are easy and convenient, they are readily available to the strong, but they are usually the short term choice
- the strong is usually arrogant and tends to overlook a number of potentials potholes
- as Sun Zi correctly advocated, prudence is gold in war, since the cost for error is enormous. the weak is forced to exercise prudence because resource is limited - not so for the strong
This applies to Iraq as well.
This also applies to GWOT.
Update: Part (ii) on 4GW here.