Guo Jia (iii) - Three-way statecraft around the Sea of Japan (aks East Sea)

Guo Jia's theory basically tells us if there is some fissure within two parties, applying external pressure will bind them together tighter. OTOH, leaving them alone the fissure will surface sooner or later.

David@jujuflop commented (in Guo Jia (ii))when this theory was applied to the Taiwan political situation today, that the parties at odd could also be PFP and KMT. Yes and no. There is certainly fissure between these 2 parties and the relationship is related to external pressure, as already reflected in the elections of 2000 and 2004. In 2000 there was no external pressure and they were defeated by DPP despite gathering almost 60% of the popular votes. In 2004 external pressure bound them together and they ran up very close to DPP.

However, Guo Jia's point is about strategic choice, that one has a genuine choice of doing something, usually counter-intuitive, to change the alliance status of others. The results can only be credibly attributed to the influence of such strategic choice if the fissure is a hidden one, because once the fissure has already surfaced it is just a matter of time rather than the result of your action/inaction. The Taiwan Civil Society letter quote in "Guo Jia (ii)" is to some extent triggered by Bian's irresponsible (and lame) self-defense in front of the TV (and more so by DPP's complacency toward corruption), which was in turn forced by pan-Blue's recall motion. In addition, the fissure had been well underground. So I do not see the analogy could be applied to PFP/KMT spat, which is already quite open, yet.

Meanwhile, 3000 kilometers to the northeast of the beautiful island, Guo Jia (iii) is being played out.


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