David@jujuflop commented (in Guo Jia (ii))when this theory was applied to the Taiwan political situation today, that the parties at odd could also be PFP and KMT. Yes and no. There is certainly fissure between these 2 parties and the relationship is related to external pressure, as already reflected in the elections of 2000 and 2004. In 2000 there was no external pressure and they were defeated by DPP despite gathering almost 60% of the popular votes. In 2004 external pressure bound them together and they ran up very close to DPP.
However, Guo Jia's point is about strategic choice, that one has a genuine choice of doing something, usually counter-intuitive, to change the alliance status of others. The results can only be credibly attributed to the influence of such strategic choice if the fissure is a hidden one, because once the fissure has already surfaced it is just a matter of time rather than the result of your action/inaction. The Taiwan Civil Society letter quote in "Guo Jia (ii)" is to some extent triggered by Bian's irresponsible (and lame) self-defense in front of the TV (and more so by DPP's complacency toward corruption), which was in turn forced by pan-Blue's recall motion. In addition, the fissure had been well underground. So I do not see the analogy could be applied to PFP/KMT spat, which is already quite open, yet.
Meanwhile, 3000 kilometers to the northeast of the beautiful island, Guo Jia (iii) is being played out.
- North and South Korea are at odd. S Korea were furious at NK's missile testing. But Japan's overhyping had left S Korea with no choice but prioritized its perceived threats. If Japan genuinely wants peace around the Sea of Japan, the best approach is, as many have pointed out, to totally ignore the attention-seeking baby Kim Jong-il. If it really feels threatened, develop TMD quietly with the US
- However, this may not be Japan's objective (for once, People's Daily is right!). Japanese strategists are the also experts in Sun Zi and ROTK (esp Cao Cao). They are well aware of these case studies. Their true objective is more likely, as I noted before, "Pyongyang and Tokyo find themselves unlikely partners in fueling this vicious circle, each to fulfill its own military ambition."
- In fact, one can also apply Guo Jia's theory to the 3-way satecraft between China, DPRK and Japan. China has been extremely annoyed by DPRK's openly ignoring its advice, and is probably planning on punitive measure of its own. Now Japan's continued belligerence may well push China back to its complacency with NK. This is not what the US would like to see. American diplomats need to judge the situation and make their decision very carefully, for their own interests.