Government officials are genius, especially the omnipotent Chinese

China Minsitry of Informational Industry (MII) said it will 'guide enterprises to develop $30 handphones and $100 computers'

• 中國信息產業部有關負責人表示，將引導企業開發出三十美元的手機和一百美元的電腦。

I do not know how these genius' (is this the plural for genius? It is rare to see more than one genius' together) are going to "guide" through this. All I know is you can get these gadgets at lower prices on eBay or second hand markets in HK or many Chinese cities. Why not use the money to offer cheap repair and extended warranty services to qualified farmers instead? This would satisfy the order they received from above, to improve the situations for farmers.

Categories:

• china
• biz

Explain the world from a map

You can explain a lot of questions from looking at a map. You can also spot patterns and form hypothesis/theory with a map. Example by examining this physical geography map of Asia

• Why S Korea is richer than N Korea from the beginning - more low-lying and flat land
• Why Taiwan was colonized by the Chinese before the Japanese or the Ryukyu - Arable flat low land on the west coast (and population pressure in China of course, but there was also the neutralizing factor of dynasty discouragement)
• Pattern: ancient civilizations all formed around the 33-37 parallel, Yellow River area, Mesopotamia, Persian Plateau, Indus River area and Greece. Theory/hypothesis: perhaps it is cold enough to have a winter so that people have nothing to do but think and innovate whiel it is not too cold that they cannot survive?
  
• Corollary: Is Lee Kuan Yew correct on his praise for true invention of air-conditioner (I tend to make stupid mistakes in maths while at school in summer exams but did well in winters. I used to blame the higher brownian motion activities in summer for disrupting my neurons)?
  
• See the area around Shanxi province in China (labeled Yellow Earth Plateau/Huangtu Gaoyuan), the desertification in China. This was the center of Chinese civilization from 500BC to fairly recently, then that of present Iraq (should yellower than as displayed in this map), Indus River Valley (Pakistan). Question: why these areas which nurtured early civilization are all desert today? Is Jared Diamond right on his Easter Island theory?
• Hot and mountainous areas tend to nurture spicy cuisines (perhaps for better preserving food/killing germ or masking rotten smell?). e.g. Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, SE Asia, India. What about the Sichuan Basin (just look for a 'basin' on the map, you won't miss)? Being surrounded and hence 'conquered' by mountain cuisine culture?
• Match the map of arable land (low, flat, with water) with that of Han and ethnic minority population in China. Note the spots of Miao and Yao who shared the land with Han 3000 years ago. Corollary: why Han Chinese did not really colonize Xinjiang despite extensive control and migration during Han and Tang period even further west
  

You are welcome to add your insights.

Categories:

• map
• geography

CATO's Ted Carpenter on strait relationship

Ted Carpenter, the VP of Cato Institute, expressed his view on the strait relationship. He is largely right, except some minor points. e.g. CCP's objective today is not immediate re-unification. They know it is impossible. All they wanted is to avoid formal breaking off of the island.

I wish the leaders in Zhongnanhai would listen to this

• Until now, Beijing has been able to delude itself that the "Taiwan problem" is all due to President Chen and the DPP. At some point, the Beijing regime will have to realize that its quarrel is really with the bulk of the Taiwanese people.

Categories:

• china
• taiwan
• pol

HK: Taxi discount party, and why I would vote for long hair

The free sheet in HK provides more than what I have expected. e.g. am730 has a pretty good column: Centralblogger. On Apr 10 a vivid case of Happy Discount Taxi Driver was discussed (cannot find the permalink, you have to search by title "快樂的八折的士司機" or date, or at am730 apr/11 pp13)

It dissects how the discount party works

• A core group called "the centre" takes order (each driver will hand out phone numbers to passengers, to reach the centre), which comprises of about 10 people
  
• The second line of the party pays about 30-90 per day to the centre, and the centre will direct order to these drivers. This fee is quite significant, considering the daily revenue of the driver is perhaps a couple thousands. It means the extra revenue the drivers collect must be sizable, if they are willing to give 20% discount and pay the 'centre fee' on top. (For taxi driver economics, where utilization is a key issue, see the Shanghai Case Study, which won the Simon Award)
  
• A natural question for the centre is: what is the optimum number of 2nd line members. They need certain guaranteed volume to justify the fees (and incentives for these drivers to direct traffic to the call centre; willing to take call order once committed, and not setting up their own call centres). The 'centre' limited the party size to ensure volume and utilization.
• After this is taken care of, a second question arised. How to make sure the passengers are happy? Here comes an ingenius solution. Recruit a peripheral 3rd line members, who do not have to pay for the referral. All they need to do is take the business and honor the commitment (to pick up passengers).

Chairman Mao said, "The eyes of the mass are clear as snow". In this case, business solution emerges from the "mass". Such innovations are more frequently found in a free economy (and that intense competition leads to ingeneous solutions), where everyone is empower to innovate. Unfortunately (and fortunately) it was Deng, not Mao, who got the essence of this line. The problems and complains in the local taxi industry originate from the greedy government policy, which tries to apply its de facto tax on real estate to the taxi licenses as well. IMO the problems are not too serious, as HK people still enjoy one of the most affordable taxi fleets in the world.

Digression: there are other ingeneous solution in mainland China.

• "The Chinese Taxi Model: The innovation is to ask the passenger to switch to a car coming from the opposite direction around the mid-point of the path, so that both vehicles only have to drive half the distance and can return with full load of passenger as well. This way both vehicles can save fuel costs, time, depreciation and even toll by halving the mileage, and part of the savings given back to the passenger via a price discount"

---
How much is the minimum charge if you catch a taxi on Lantau Island? NT?

This is one of the questions (replicated on the same blog) from a quiz from HK Magazine . It conducted a quiz for a few Legco members on the Apr 7 issue. A Chinese summary can be found here.

Long Hair (Leung Kwok Hung) emerged as the champion, even though a few of the questions are expat-Bourgeois only (Frappaccino, Soho restaurant and Mr. Aaaah-Aaaww). Frankly, I know who Mr Aaahh-aaawww is but cannot make the connect with the way the question was asked. So Leung actually scored 7 out of a total of 9 "relevant" questions. A few of them are actually what has been debated in the Legco, I wonder where these big-shot have gone during the meetings.

Bottom scorers: Emily Lau(3), Cheung Yu Yan (3), Martin Lee (2).

This quiz does not mean much. But it shows how ideology has overshadowed common sense in HK politics as well. This is why I would vote for long hair.

Categories:

• hk
• pol

The new paradigm on "special relationship"

Thomas Barnett's analogy of the 'special relationship' between US and UK in 20th century, which is based on ideology, then culture, and probably ethnic heritage as well. He suggests it is now time to use a new set of criteria to find such partner.

You may not agree, so read the comments under his post as well.

Categories:

• china
• us
• pol

Taiwan and Korea: what has gone wrong with Taiwan?

The Legislative Yuan in Taiwan is notorious for meaningless word fight. Now KMT is accusing DPP government for the lackluster economic performance, citing Korea as its benchmark. DPP retorted that Taiwan is only behind by about $1000 per capita.

Here are the data for your reference and judgment.

GDP/capita (Korea)

• * 2000: 10882
• * 2001: 10178
• * 2002: 11468
• * 2003: 12689
• * 2004(EIU): 14116
• * 2005E(EIU): 16897

GDP/capita (Taiwan)

• * 2000: 13852
• * 2001: 12508
• * 2002: 12539
• * 2003: 12692
• * 2004(EIU): 13548
• * 2005E(EIU): 14857

There are some valid points given by the KMT clan this time, although there are many reasons behind the economic development of an area.

1. Taiwan's GDP is behind Korea's by $2000 per capita in 2005 according to EIU; from $3000 ahead in 2000
2. Growth between 2000 and 2005: Taiwan 1.4%; Korea 9.2%
3. Note this comparison is in USD, so exchange rate may affect the results a lot. However, even if one look at the data at local currency, it is hard to say Taiwan has done well

The comparison between Taiwan and S Korea is often made. Because they are both Asian Dragons, of similar size, focus in technology related industries (hence affected by industrial cycles synchronously), both inherited the problem of the cold war (with a communist neighbor up north, though Taiwan fared better as mainland China's economy took off since the 1980s), etc. It is quite irresponsible to dismiss the miserable performance as "only $1000 behind" for these legislators, especially when the net difference is $5000/capita .

One can look at other indicators, such as stock market performance (which are denominated in local currencies) and reach similar conclusion:

Or, look at the GDP growth (Source: ADB forecast) for the rest of CSB's term.

To be fair, it is not just the DPP government that is guilty. KMT (under the Chiang's and Lee) did not leave their successor CSB a star government. But the newly elected democrats in S Korea has similar legacy and perhaps tougher problems to fix.

So what has gone wrong in Taiwan? Here is one of the main reasons: Korea does not hesitate to take the China opportunity and make every penny it could. Taiwanese government tries everything possible to do the opposite. See, for example

• Taiwan's economic freedom
• Taiwan's discouragement and restriction for making money in mainland
• Chen Shui Bian's new blog entry: 亂邦不入、危邦不居 "Don't go into a state/country/city in chaos, don't live in a one that is in danger" (An anti-demonstation of lawyer's logic. But I wonder which city/area he is referring to)
  

Categories:

• Taiwan
• Korea
• biz

China wage rising

10 months ago I discussed about the apparently 'unlimited supply of cheap labor' in China, which is coming to an end. I saw this based on what I saw in inland cities a couple years ago, the country girls are no longer traveling to Guangdong or Yangtze Delta. There are sufficient job opportunities in cities close to home.

Recently Businessweek has an update. It discusses turnover rate and quotes a few observed cases. This shows that market force is at work. What needs to appreciate will appreciate (wages in this case). OTOH, some of the steam building on the pressure for RMB appreciation will be let off. It is time for exporters in China to re-negotiate the price. Wait, isn't it easier for the exporters if China simply allow the Yuan to appreciate more instead?

Update: Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley said

• China has come a long way in the 27 years since Deng Xiaoping launched the world’s most populous nation on a path of unprecedented reform. There have been doubters at virtually every point along the way. Yet time and again, China has stayed the course. The latest worry is that the land of surplus labor is rapidly running out of workers — leading to excessive wage inflation and a loss of competitiveness, with profound implications for China and the rest of the world. Such concerns, like those of the past, are vastly overblown, in my view.
• Moreover, this upsurge of Chinese wage inflation appears to have been accompanied by exceptionally vigorous gains in worker productivity — suggesting that unit labor cost pressures remain under good control. That means China’s competitive advantage remains very much intact.

Jen is probably right that the concern is overblown. But the significance of such observation is that it is happening, as it should have long ago. The NYT (and BW) reports only showed labor shortage in the rich coastal areas, where there is a huge gap between migrant workers in factories and local labor (who works in offices, e.g.). There are still plenty of low paid jobs to be filled in less developed provinces. The implications

1. The trend observed is for coastal China, which is only 1/4-1/3 of the total of China
2. The overall wage rise will be a very slow process. What we see in NYT/BW is only one end of a long rope. It takes a lot of time when the whole rope moves. But at least the rope has finally started to move. (from 1984-2004 only part
   
3. Coast provinces may have to shift upward in the value added
4. Inland province will be the Guangdong/Zhejiang of 5-10years ago
5. It is still too early to talk about Bangladesh/Vietnam. (though Vietnam has very similar labor force as Sichuan and Guangxi)
   

Related: Economist: RMB does not change US trade deficit

---
Businessweek MARCH 27, 2006

NEWS: ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY

How Rising Wages Are Changing The Game In China
A labor shortage has pay soaring. That is sure to send ripples around the globe.
(archive here)


-----
Labor Shortage in China May Lead to Trade Shift
By DAVID BARBOZA
Published: April 3, 2006
SHENZHEN, China

Archived here
....
"The people coming here are fewer and fewer," said a woman named Miss Li, who works at the Xingda Employment Agency. "All the labor agencies face the same problem. A lot of young people are now going to the Yangtze River area, where there are higher salaries."

In Guangdong Province late last year, the government said factories were short more than 500,000 workers; and in Fujian Province, there was a shortage of 300,000.

Even north of Shenzhen, Zhejiang Province, known for its brash entrepreneurs, is short about 200,000 to 300,000 workers this year, government officials say. The Wahaha Group, a Chinese beverage maker based in the city of Hangzhou, is one of the region's rising corporate stars. But one of the company's 500-worker factories is short by 50.

...

"Many companies are already moving to Wuhan, Chongqing and Hunan," Ms. Hong said, ticking off the names of inland Chinese cities. "But Vietnam and Bangladesh are also benefiting. We're bullish on Vietnam."

Categories:

• china
• biz

RMB and USD finally de-coupled

From regressional analysis, it has been shown that USD represents over 99% of the weight inside the 'basket', from July 2005 till March 2006.

However, such regressional analysis cannot be taken as conclusive. For example,
1) USD appreciated against many other currencies during this period;
2) The daily movement is restricted to 0.15%

The mayin group has established a system to monitor the correlation coefficients (i.e. the basket "weight"). In addition, they have tracked an indicator to see if there is structural change in the formula. They found that in the middle of March 2006 there is finally (statistically significant) change in the formula. i.e. it is likely that RMB and USD finally decoupled.

• From 1 November 2005 onwards, the empirical fluctuation process (black line) was compared against its boundary for rejection of stability (the red line). While the process stayed below the boundary, we could not reject the null that the currency regime was unchanged compared to that prevailing in the history period. But now the process has crossed the boundary, so we know something has changed.

The 'fluctuation process' involves some complicated statistical theories. My understanding is that it means the old formula (with USD=99%+) no long holds. It is still too early to say if RMB has been decoupled from USD, but it would be a new formula, and in this formula USD does not represent 99%+ weight in the basket. It could be 80% or 98%. We need to wait for more data before we know what it is. Or, it will be changed by the time we figured it out. However, this does not neccessarily mean that RMB is "manipulated" arbitrarily, it could mean that there is an objective mechanism and built into which is something to ensure it will move by the time we gather enough data to plot out the weight composition. i.e. a 'moving target' for speculators.


Related: see Stephen Roach on the rate of crawl.

Categories:

• china
• biz
• rmb

US job loss and RMB, let numbers speak

It is well known among sane minds that RMB appreciation does not help to stop US job loss. But here is some quantification via Asiapundit/HowardFrench/Financial Times

• China manufacturing myths (Guy de Jonquières - The Financial Times)

  April 04, 2006

  Copyright The Financial Times

  Published: April 3 2006

  Amid all the squeals in Washington at the yawning US trade deficit with China, one strikes a specially resonant political chord: that unfair Chinese competition is annihilating US manufacturing industry and “stealing American jobs”. The assertion is so common it has assumed the status of fact. Yet it is almost entirely false.

  For a start, the bilateral imbalance may be overstated. After ironing out the wide discrepancies between both sides’ data, Oxford Economics, a consultancy, finds China’s share has hovered at about a fifth of the total US merchandise deficit since 1995. That suggests the former is as much a result as a cause of the latter’s growth. Heaping all the blame on China would be off the mark, even if US manufacturing were dying.

  But by most measures, it is in rude health. The US is still the top manufacturing nation, producing almost a quarter of global output, the same as in 1994, while Japan’s share has shrunk. Adjusted to reflect steady falls in the prices of manufactures relative to other goods and services, US output has doubled since 1985 and its share of gross domestic product has changed little in half a century.

  True, more output is from plants owned by non-US companies, some of which have displaced indigenous production. That may fuel popular perceptions of national decline, particularly because greenfield factories usually shun the old rust belt. But corporate nationality is irrelevant to overall economic welfare, except insofar as foreign-owned plants often out-perform locally owned ones.

  What of China as “job thief”? US manufacturing employment is in long-term decline, just as it is in other rich countries. But that is chiefly because of impressive productivity gains. Had none occurred since 1970, almost 40 per cent of all US jobs would – in theory – be in manufacturing, three times today’s level. But the comparison is meaningless because standing still would have consigned US manufacturers to competitive oblivion.

  Of course, Chinese competition has claimed some US manufacturing jobs. But Oxford Economics puts the losses from 2000 to 2010 as low as 500,000 – no more than the US labour force sheds each week. Their disappearance is also partly a statistical illusion. Many manufacturing jobs are actually in services, such as finance and marketing, which yield far higher returns. As companies have disaggregated or outsourced operations, official employment data have re-allocated swaths of workers to the services sector.

  If US manufacturing is stronger than many Americans believe, China poses a weaker challenge than is often supposed. Its output is still less than half that of the US – and many of its industries are suffering a severe profits squeeze. Indeed, to call China a manufacturing economy is something of a misnomer. In reality, it is the world’s biggest final assembly shop, with minimal local value-added.

  As a forthcoming report* by the Institute for International Economics and the Center for Strategic and International Studies points out, on average two-thirds of the value of Chinese products is imported – and much more in some industries. Furthermore, China’s much-ballyhooed “high-tech” exports are a quirk of customs classification: most are low-margin electronics products, such as DVD players. According to Jonathan Woetzel of McKinsey, the management consultancy, China still lags far behind the US in precision engineering industries.

  Many big-ticket Chinese exports are of things no longer made in the US or that have never been made there. A large renminbi revaluation would merely shift Chinese production to even lower-cost locations elsewhere. Increases in China’s still low productivity levels will have a similar effect as higher wages make low-skilled, labour-intensive output increasingly uncompetitive.

  At the same time, more sophisticated activities will spring up to replace it. That has already happened in steel, where China’s capacity has exploded in the past few years. It will soon be repeated in the car industry as investment pours into local production of the lower-cost components China needs to export vehicles profitably in volume.

  That is a prospect to strike fear into Detroit. But the main reason is not because Chinese car companies are likely to develop overnight into super-competitive Toyota clones. It is because decades of mismanagement and failure to produce what the market wants have pushed US carmakers to the edge of the abyss. It will not take much to tip them over.

  Moving steadily up-market is a natural, indeed inevitable, feature of economic development. The biggest worry for the US – and other rich nations – is not that China will follow the same path but that their own economies will stop doing so. There is no intrinsic reason why that should happen and few signs of it as yet. But if it does happen, they will have only themselves to blame.

  
  *China: The Balance Sheet www.iie.com

I will try to follow up with some quantitative analysis later if I can find the data. But here is what I plan to do

• Given the estimated 500k job loss in 10 years, or 50k/year, compare this with the case "without China", and that "if RMB appreciates by 10-15%, or even 27.5%". (one can do this by comparing the job loss of a country with higher tariff to Chinese imports, or imports in general, but at a similar income level as US, e.g. Switzerland/Japan and see if the % job loss is less)
• Compare the job creation meanwhile in US, and see if this is significantly larger that 50k. If it is, then it means a more effectively solution would be to increase the job creation a little. If it is not, then the protectionists may be right.
  
• Compare the economic costs of 27.5% tariff to US as a whole. This would effectively shift some of the "made in China" products to elsewhere more expensive that Chinese product (and perhaps an extremely small percentage back into US). That means US will be paying x% more for what they buy in Wal-mart (by turning to alternative sources in Vietnam, Bangladesh). Typically this will also result in a decline in demand of y%. Net effect is US is paying more for less goods (1+x%)(1-y%)>1. This is because for a small change in price, volume usually does not drop as much. i.e. x>y. The difference (roughly $(x%-y%).240bn) will be the change in 'trade deficit', which I expect, will be much higher than how much it costs to feed 50k people (say, $30kx50k=$150m). If x-y>0.06%, then it is more economical to simply create 50k welfare jobs than raising the tariff, while improving quality of living by getting more goods for less price, while having these 50k people serving in, e.g. full service gas stations in NJ
• We can also try to estimate the impact of x-y of an RMB appreciate and reach a similar conclusion
  

We already know the answer. But it would be interesting to prove it with numbers.

Chinese Literature post: Feng Sanniang

Liao Zai (聊齋志异)is a great story book. My second favorite (after Romance of the Three Kingdom). This is perhaps the best story, Pu Songling(蒲松齡)'s version of "Romeo and Juliet", Feng Sanniang(封三娘). I am surprised the movie has not been made yet. This tale has all the praise that Brokeback Mountain received, and more, and richer, and better.

I was going to write some review. But I found this excellent piece by googling.

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Original story text (for traditional Chinese version here, synopsis in English here - note any synopsis for such a highly condensed story will not do it justice):

封三娘

　　范十一娘，(田鹿)城祭酒之女，少艳美，骚雅(Sao=离骚, ya probably=尔雅,here it means poetry and literature. Saoya is a branch of Song-ci Style, so this could also specifically mean the skill in writing ci词)尤绝。父母钟爱之，求聘者辄令自择，女恒少所可。会上元日，水月寺中诸尼作“盂兰盆会”。是日，游女如云，女亦诣之。方随喜间，一女子步趋相从，屡望颜色，似欲有言。审视之，二八绝代姝也。悦而好之，转用盼注。女子微笑曰：“姊非范十一娘乎？”答曰：“然。”女子曰：“久闻芳名，人言果不虚谬。”十一娘亦审里居，女笑曰：“妾封氏，第三，近在邻村。”把臂欢笑，词致温婉，于是大相爱悦，依恋不舍。十一娘问：“何无伴侣？”曰：“父母早逝，家中止一老妪留守门户，故不得来。”十一娘将归，封凝眸欲涕，十一娘亦惘然，遂邀过从。封曰：“娘子朱门绣户，妾素无葭莩(Reed membrane, implying very thin relationship)亲，虑致讥嫌。”十一娘固邀之。答：“俟异日。”十一娘乃脱金钗一股赠之，封亦摘髻上绿簪为报。十一娘既归，倾想殊切。出所赠簪，非金非玉，家人都不之识，甚异之。日望其来，怅然遂病。父母讯得故，使人于近村谘访，并无知者。时值重九，十一娘羸顿无聊。倩侍儿强扶窥园，设褥东篱下。忽一女子攀垣来窥，觇之，则封女也。呼曰：“接我以力？”侍儿从之，蓦然遂下。十一娘惊喜，顿起，曳坐褥间，责其负约，且问所来。答云：“妾家去此尚远，时来舅家作耍。前言近村者，缘舅家耳。别后悬思颇苦，然贫贱者与贵人交，足未登门，先怀惭怍，恐为婢仆下眼觑，是以不果来。适经墙外过，闻女子语，便一攀望，冀是小姐，今果如愿。”十一娘因述病源，封泣下如雨，因曰：“妾来当须秘密。造言生事者，飞短流长，所不堪受。”十一娘诺。偕归同榻，快与倾怀，病寻愈。订为姊妹，衣服履舄，辄互易着。见人来，则隐匿夹幕间。
　　积五六月，公及夫人颇闻之。一日，两人方对弈，夫人掩入。谛视，惊曰：“真吾儿友也！”因谓十一娘：“闺中有良友，我两人所欢，胡不早言？”十一娘因达封意。夫人顾谓三娘曰：“伴吾儿，极所忻慰，何昧之？”封羞晕满颊，默然拈带而已。夫人去，封乃告别，十一娘苦留之，乃止。一夕，自门外匆忙奔入，泣曰：“我固谓不可留，今果遭此大辱！”惊问之。曰：“适出更衣，一少年丈夫，横来相干，幸而得逃。如此，复何面目！”十一娘细诘形貌，谢曰：“勿须怪，此妾痴兄。会告夫人，杖责之。”封坚辞欲去。十一娘请待天曙。封曰：“舅家咫尺，但须一梯度我过墙耳。”十一娘知不可留，使两婢逾墙送之。行半里许，辞谢自去。婢返，十一娘扶床悲惋，如失伉俪。
　　后数月，婢以故至东村，暮归，遇封女从老妪来。婢喜，拜问，封亦恻恻，讯十一娘兴居。婢捉袂曰：“三姑过我。我家姑姑盼欲死！”封曰：“我亦思之，但不乐使家人知。归启园门，我自至。”婢归告十一娘，十一娘喜，从其言，则封已在园中矣。相见，各道间阔，绵绵不寐。视婢子眠熟，乃起，移与十一娘同枕，私语曰：“妾固知娘子未字。以才色门第，何患无贵介婿，然绔袴儿敖不足数，如欲得佳偶，请无以贫富论。”十一娘然之。封曰：“旧年邂逅处，今复作道场，明日再烦一往，当令见一如意郎君。妾少读相人书，颇不参差。”昧爽封即去，约俟兰若，十一娘果往，封已先在。眺览一周，十一娘便邀同车。携手出门，见一秀才，年可十七八，布袍不饰，而容仪俊伟。封潜指曰：“此翰苑才也。”十一娘略睨之，封别曰：“娘子先归，我即继至。”入暮果至，曰：“我适物色甚详，其人即同里孟安仁也。”十一娘知其贫，不以为可。封曰：“娘子何堕世情哉！此人苟长贫贱者，予当抉眸子，不复相天下士矣。”十一娘曰：“且为奈何？”曰：“愿得一物，持与订盟。”十一娘曰：“姊何草草？父母在，不遂如何？”封曰：“妾此为，正恐其不遂耳。志若坚，生死何可夺也？”十一娘必不可。封曰：“娘子姻缘已动，而魔劫未消。所以故，来报前好耳。请即别，即以所赠金凤钗，矫命赠之。”十一娘方谋更商，封已出门去。
　　时孟生贫而多才，意将择耦，故十八犹未聘也。是日，忽睹两艳，归涉冥想。一更向尽，封三娘款门而入。烛之，识为日中所见，喜致诘问。曰：“妾封氏，范十一娘之女伴也。”生大悦，不暇细审，遽前拥抱。封拒曰：“妾非毛遂，乃曹丘生(Cao Qiu Sheng tried very hard to sell the talent of Ji Bu )季布) toward the end of Qin Dynasty)。十一娘愿缔永好，请倩冰也。”生愕然不信，封乃以钗示生。生喜不自已，矢曰：“劳眷注如此，仆不得十一娘，宁终鳏耳。”封遂去。生诘旦，浼邻媪诣范夫人。夫人贫之，竟不商女，立便却去。十一娘知之，心失所望，深恨封之误己也，而金钗难返，只须以死矢之。
　　又数日，有某绅为子求婚，恐不谐，浼邑宰作伐。时某方居权要，范公心畏之。以问十一娘，十一娘不乐，母诘之，默默不言，但有涕泪。使人潜告夫人，非孟生不嫁。公闻益怒，竟许某绅家；且疑十一娘有私意于生，遂涓吉速成礼。十一娘忿不食，日惟耽卧。至亲迎之前夕，忽起，揽镜自妆，夫人窃喜。俄侍女奔曰：“小姐自缢死！”举家惊涕，痛悔无所复及。三日遂葬。
　　孟生自邻媪反命，愤恨欲绝。然遥遥探访，妄冀复挽。察知佳人有主，忿火中烧，万虑俱断矣。未几，闻玉葬香埋，然悲丧，恨不从丽人俱死。向晚出门，意将乘昏夜一哭十一娘之墓。欻有一人来，近之，则封三娘。向生道喜曰：“喜姻好可就矣。”生泫然曰：“卿不知十一娘亡耶？”封曰：“我所谓就者，正以其亡。可急唤家人发冢，我有异药能令苏。”生从之，发墓破棺，复掩其穴。生自负尸，与三娘俱归，置榻上，投以药，逾时而苏。顾见三娘，问：“此何所？”封指生曰：“此孟安仁也。”因告以故，始知复生。封惧漏泄，相将去五十里，避匿山村。
　　封欲辞去，十一娘乞留作伴，使别院居。因货殉葬之饰，用为资度，亦称小有。封每遇生来辄避去，十一娘从容曰：“吾姊妹骨肉不啻也，然终无百年聚。计不如效英、皇(女英,娥皇,sisters, daughters of Emperor Yao, both married Emperor Xun)。”封曰：“妾少得异诀，吐纳可以长生，故不愿嫁耳。”十一娘笑曰：“世传养生术，汗牛充栋，行而效者谁也？”封曰：“妾所得非人世所知。世所传并非真诀，惟华陀五禽图差为不妄。凡修炼家，无非欲血气流通耳，若得厄逆症，作虎形立止，非其验耶？”十一娘阴与生谋，使伪为出者。入夜，强劝以酒，既醉，生潜入污之。三娘醒曰：“妹子害我矣！倘色戒不破，道成当升第一天。今堕奸谋，命耳！”乃起告辞。十一娘告以诚意而哀谢之。封曰：“实相告：我乃狐也。缘瞻丽容，忽生爱慕，如茧自缠，遂有今日。此乃情魔之劫，非关人力。再留则魔更生，无底止矣。娘子福泽正远，珍重自爱。”言已而逝。夫妻惊叹久之。
　　逾年，生乡、会果捷，官翰林。投刺谒范公，公愧悔不见；固请之，乃见。生入，执子婿礼，伏拜甚恭。公大怒，疑生儇薄。生请间，具道情事。公不深信，使人探诸其家，方大惊喜。阴戒勿宣，惧有祸变。又二年，某绅以关节发觉，父子充辽海军。十一娘始归宁焉。

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A Review from google search

一曲女性同性爱的悲歌
雍容

封三娘》似乎缺乏独创性：美丽的少女，势利的父亲，贫穷而有才华的书生，神通广大的狐女；私约，拒婚，死而复生，终成眷属，夫贵妻荣。好似唐传奇《张延赏》“不识韦皋是贵人”的余响，又似《牡丹亭》“杜丽娘慕色还魂”的姊妹篇，还有《无双传》中义士古押衙的影子……但，在这一堆大杂烩之下，隐藏的是一个极少被表现的主题：女性同性爱

人们将异性爱视为“正常”的感情。而有“正常”，就有“反常”。分桃断袖，见诸史籍；野史小说，尤多点染。但彼时男性同性恋往往是居高位者对卑贱者的权力体现，是其性游戏的点缀与补充。史载汉武帝于韩嫣、李延年，小说中如《金瓶梅》中西门庆于画童，或《红楼梦》中薛蟠的“龙阳之兴”，皆是如此。女性同性爱势必是存在的，却湮没无闻，为什么？男权社会里，男性把女性当作玩物，当作依附他们而存在的柔弱生物，他们根本就不承认女性的取向竟有不指向他们而指向自身的。所以他们塑造了烈女供奉在祠堂里，也一刀剁下“淫妇”的头理直气壮丢到公堂上，都绝不会相信“佳人”竟有不肯仰慕“圣人”或“才子”的时候。故而无论正史野史，对此讳之莫深。由此可见，此篇主题有多么尖锐（虽然蒲松龄自己未必意识到这一点）。这是对伦理秩序的强烈冲击。其余“爱情”作品提倡婚姻自主、反抗父母之命的主题，破坏性比之差远了。

肯定有人会问：事实如此吗？难道不能将封三娘和范十一娘的感情视为“友情”吗？具体分析一下原文，就不能不得出结论，她们之间的感情，已不是简单的“友情”所能涵盖。小说开篇即告诉你，范十一娘“少艳美，骚雅尤绝”，对众多求婚者不屑一顾。试看她与封三娘交往始末：
时间，上元节，孟兰盆会。
地点，佛寺（水月寺，“水月”的意象自来就是有特殊含义的）。
方式，封三娘“步趋相从，展望颜色，似欲有言”；十一娘也“悦而好之，转用盼注”，之后是攀谈，“大相爱悦”，结盟，互赠信物，别后相思……

　这一切正是经典才子佳人小说的规定情境和熟滥套路，甚至作者的用语也那么熟滥：十一娘“日望其来，羸顿无聊”，一见面就“惊喜，顿起”，小别又是“扶床悲挽”，重逢就“各道间阔，绵绵不寐”……偏偏主人公不是才子佳人，而是两个女子。惟其情节用语之俗滥，其反讽效果愈强烈。

　这种“情”的不同一般，标准不在于是否牵涉到性行为，而在于是否将彼此视为最大的精神寄托。小说反复强调两人相得之欢和分离之苦，可见两人情趣之相投、感情之深厚。相反，无论范十一娘或封三娘对男主人公孟安仁都是没有什么感情的。封三娘最后黯然离去，她所谓“缘瞻丽容，忽生爱慕，如茧自缠，遂有今日”的“情魔之劫”，其对象不是孟，而是范，很清楚的表明这一点。

　小说中有两处情节尤可注意，一是封三娘主动为范择婿，作为“狐”，她唯一展示法力就是令范起死回生，将之送到孟身边。爱是带有排他性质的，如何解释她的行为？很简单，同性爱不见容于社会，范的命运只能是出嫁，封三娘神通再大也无法改变这一点。否则就会将之拖入无望、耻辱和痛苦的深渊。既然如此，她就应为她安排好尘世的归宿。女性既然不得不依附于男性，所谓“百年苦乐由他人”，为她择婿，就是对她的爱的最好体现。再次，从心理上讲，此举有代偿作用。一个易被忽视的细节是，择婿正是在一年前她们相会的同一时间、同一地点展开的。这无疑暗示了这一点。

　　一是范十一娘与孟成婚后，竟灌醉了封三娘让孟“潜入污之”。这一举动看来很丑陋，但她是不得已出此下策。这绝不是对丈夫占有欲膨胀的忍让屈从，也不是封建教化带来的“贤良”，恰恰相反，她对孟从来就没有爱情。虽然她曾为他自杀过，那倒是“从一而终”的封建思想作怪（当然也有心理代偿作用，即孟是封为她安排的，她一定要将之作为封的意志来服从）。她是自觉自愿与封共事一夫以达到和她长相厮守的目的。她的丈夫，非但不是她服务的对象，反而成了她达到目的的工具。舍此之外，她还有什么办法在婚后再保持同封的亲密关系呢？她的“不妒”似乎很符合封建道德，其实是对封建道德的极端颠覆。

既然小说是对“才子佳人”模式的反讽，张扬了“佳人”间的“情”，就必然动摇了“才子”的固有形象。在小说中，孟安仁这个“才子”，已经不居于叙述的核心地位，也不是女性关注的焦点。他只是俗而又俗的一个人，虽然蒲松龄给足了他面子（否则辱没十一娘，也不显封三娘的眼力），又是“仪容俊伟”，又是“翰苑才”，但其品质颇可怀疑。封与范旧地重游，与之相遇，他“忽睹两艳，归涉冥想”，封三娘刚一进门，他就“大悦，不暇细审，遽前拥抱”，以至封不得不赶紧声明“妾非毛遂，乃曹丘生”。封三娘成全了他的婚姻, 可十一娘出了个馊主意，他竟照做了，小说虽未直书其心理，但正中下怀无疑矣。比起运筹帷幄、成人之美的封三娘，他的形象要猥琐得多。至于范十一娘的父亲，鼠目寸光，虚伪顽固，更不足论。小说中第三个男性，十一娘之兄，只从封三娘的眼中点了一笔，就可看出是个急色鬼。虽然蒲松龄不曾发出“女人是水，男人是泥”这样的惊天之论，但在本篇中将所有男性一笔抹倒，也够叫人惊奇了。　　这篇小说笔锋之尖锐，今天看来都难以接受，那为什么少有人发现这点？如本文开头所讲，它被巧妙的隐藏在一个又一个我们熟知的“套子”里，以至于我们很容易将封三娘看作范十一娘与孟安仁的爱情守护神；它是歌颂男女婚姻自由，反对门当户对的势利观念的，等等。在当时和今天都能受到欢迎。　那么，难道男女之情不是人类自然而美好的感情吗？难道同性爱不是一种性偏差吗？本篇的意义又何在？同性爱确非常态，但在特殊环境下，它不单是能被理解与同情，甚至是可以被赞颂的。中国女性所遭受的压抑摧残，时间之长、程度之烈，世无其伦。女性除了作为母亲获得可怜的一点尊重（还有“夫死从子”一说呢），她的父亲、她的丈夫可以任意处置她的生活乃至生命。她们没有人格：不是玩物，就是偶像；她们的才华使品德受到怀疑，她们的感情使忠贞受到怀疑，她们的欲望就是堕落的标志，甚至她们还被怀疑是否配有思想。男人就喜欢她们弱不禁风，毫无主见——除了可以毫不犹豫的跳井、绝食、上吊来显示“烈”。这束缚不单是形体上的，更是精神上的，让她们安忍顺从，甚至自觉把无价值的牺牲当作人格完善的必经之路。小说戏曲里好不容易塑照了几个大胆追求幸福的女性，还是要靠金榜题名、奉旨完婚来遮羞，即，被认可的仍然不是感情而是功利。

　到底有这样一些女性，她们被锁在“不见可欲”的环境里——杜丽娘在自家花园里游玩一下还要受到斥责呢——聪慧与灵性让她们不能不对自己的处境产生了质疑，青春的律动又让她们萌发了冲动与向往。当她们不能获得正常的情感交流时，同病相怜者之间产生的爱恋，如《红楼梦》中的藕官药官，如本篇的女主人公，不仅使人同情，甚至是一种了不起的反抗与颠覆。她们不再无条件的认同法定的主宰者，摆脱了道德枷锁，满足感情的渴求。她们证实了自我的存在，展示了人性中固有的最真挚美好的一面。你不能说她们是不道德的，真正不道德的是不把女人当人看的社会。蒲松龄作为男权社会的一员，敢于写出她们的呼声，张扬她们的“情”，是多么可贵啊

　但是，这样的“情”必不为世所容。范十一娘比较天真，所以显得热烈、冲动、无所顾忌，封三娘却始终处于深刻的内心冲突之中。她与范的交往始终十分谨慎：反复叮咛“妾来当须秘密。造言生事者，飞短流长，所不堪受。”；在范家时“见人来，则隐匿夹幕间”。（这也反证了：如果是一般友情，根本无须这样忧谗畏讥），所有的突发事件都被她当作凶兆或预警。她苦心成全范的婚姻也是她思虑周密的表现。当她终于堕入孟安仁术中，她的预感成为现实，只能痛悔交加，断然离去。神通广大的狐女也逃不过这一劫，这可视为她潜意识中的自我惩罚，也是蒲松龄不能不安排的悲剧收场。世俗的力量太强大了，他本人也不能不对这种离经叛道之行表示否定，虽然有惋惜，有同情。浪漫主义作家也不能不向现实低头。但从小说结构来说，结尾余音袅袅，令人追缅，远胜于一夫二妇大团圆的俗调。

《聊斋》与《红楼》的时代离我们渐远渐去，我们或许就渐渐淡忘了从前女性身遭的虐待与摧残，这也是我们的幸福的体现。但作为现代人，应该以更宽容的目光来看待已经发生或正在发生的一些现象，不要因为属于“异类”就打入不见天日的所在。

1999年

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• china
• literature