January 31, 2008
Stephen Roach
"Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach and Mary Meeker both recently presented at the Caijing Magazine Annual Conference in Beijing.
The conference - a leading forum on the Chinese economy - addressed the major challenges and opportunities for China in 2008.
Roach kicked off his remarks by providing a comparision between the dotcom bubble burst of 1999 and the recent subprime mortgage crisis; he then focused on trends in global consumerism and the myth of Asia decoupling. He explored the challenges facing a growing China, as well as the increase in protectionism and currency risks that are playing out with Asia economic expansion."
right click to download - a very insightful set of charts.
2 comments:
Roach is going to give a speech at HK on Feb 27....
I'm nos sure what is China's exposure to sub-prime mortgage really:
- Domestically MO for home ownership and purchase is very different for the Chinese, and I suspect there's really no such thing as good/bad loans - they are all goopd/bad in some sense.
- US subprime shouldn't have a *direct* impact on China. Indirect yes, but as I recall the Beijing didn't jump when HUD secretary Alphonso Jackson visited last year to push MBS.
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