Revisit: China vs USA, total GDP growth

I wrote in 2005:
total GDP of China (in PPP) could be comparable to that of US in 15-20 years, in an optimistic scenario.

Now the Economist projected it to be around 2019, one year ahead of my optimistic scenario. I still think the Economist is a bit to optimistic.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The first graphic shows GDP per capita (GDP divided by the number of people), not GDP. GDP itself is not an accurate evaluation of the size of an economy. For example, England has a very large GDP, but it has no production, all of it is finance and virtual money.

This is a better comparison:
http://management.curiouscatblog.net/images/curiouscat_top_manufacturing_countries_comparison_1990-2008.png although USA's share dropped after 2008 and it's measured in dollars. If measured in RMB, China now has a larger industry than America. In finance, America is still a leader, but finance does not contribute much to society.