The government target has usually been conservative. eg Deng has a quadruple (翻两番) target in 20 years when he took over in 1980. the target was achieved in about 12-13 years, i think.
however, the exchange rate is an aberration. that is why i used PPP instead (though it is not perfect either -- see comment in my previous post).
p.s. roach: i suppose it is the same talk linked by my post a couple weeks ago. there are some interesting figures and insights there, IMHO.
5 comments:
Sun Bin, 聽過鄧小平的"三步走"策略嗎?
還有胡錦濤的"新三步走"?
按鄧的推算,屆2050年,即使中國的GDP已自目前的翻了兩番,也只是60,000億;距美國的140,000億遠著
按胡錦濤的新三步走,以人均GDP計算,屆時也只到11,000,距40,000仍遠
另外,今日去了聽Stephen Roach的演講,老生常談,悶出鳥來!
呀,不過,如果把通脹和人民幣升值都計算進去的話,又不是那麼遙不可及了...
The government target has usually been conservative. eg Deng has a quadruple (翻两番) target in 20 years when he took over in 1980. the target was achieved in about 12-13 years, i think.
however, the exchange rate is an aberration. that is why i used PPP instead (though it is not perfect either -- see comment in my previous post).
p.s. roach: i suppose it is the same talk linked by my post a couple weeks ago. there are some interesting figures and insights there, IMHO.
No one has ever concluded any transaction of any kind with money based on purchasing power parity.
PPP measures the exchange rate -- only -- between two different places, based on an URBAN, CONSUMER basket of goods.
No industrial goods.
No foreign trade.
No rural residents.
Now, once you've stripped all that out of China's GDP figures, you're not left with much of a national economy.
PPP can, in the right circumstances, provide some insight into comparative personal or household private consumption.
Hong Kong vs. Singapore works; USA vs. China cannot.
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