Taiwan's friends - updated

I blogged about the collection of micro-pals Taiwan had a couple years ago.
I also made some prediction, which basically stated that the size (GDP/pop) of these states will fall while the total number may not, as the larger the economy of the states are, the larger the incentive to take the mainland over Taiwan (less easy to be bought).

I was in general right. As Chad and now Costa Rica switched sides, while a tiny St Lucia came on board. Going forward, I maintain that same trend will continue, i.e. the next to go is likely to be one of Burkina Faso, Malawi, Guatemala, Dominican Republic or Paraguay. While a nano-state might come aboard between now and the 2008 Olympic.

I am sure the diplomats in both sides of the Strait understand this. But there is not much they could do to change such trend. (i.e., either for PRC to keep a nano-state or ROC to keep a larger one)

p.s. editgrid tool via erica.


Anonymous said...

Interesting analysis. I think the next to join would be Guatemala.

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