I wish the leaders in Zhongnanhai would listen to this
- Until now, Beijing has been able to delude itself that the "Taiwan problem" is all due to President Chen and the DPP. At some point, the Beijing regime will have to realize that its quarrel is really with the bulk of the Taiwanese people.
3 comments:
Fair article, but it gives me the impression that either Carpenter is rather naive, or he thinks the CCP is naive.
I'm sure Beijing doesn't really think CSB is *the* problem - but they also know he makes a wonderful scapegoat. I'm also sure that they've been listening very carefully to what Ma's been saying, and have conciously decided to let some of his comments slide ... Ma has very clearly said: 1) It's up to Taiwan's people to decide. 2) China must become a democracy before unification. 3) China should 'own up' to Tiananmen if they're serious about unification. 4) "One Country, Two systems" is not suitable for Taiwan.
Beijing have heard all that, and could have taken offense, but didn't. Why? Not because they have unrealistic expectations of what a KMT-led Taiwan would do, but because they know that a KMT-led Taiwan is much better for them than the alternative.
agree.
carpenter's comment could be seen as quite simplistic. but the common sense line is something either CCP does not get or refuse to accept, "that it is the people in Taiwan who are important and there is some fundamental problem in the CCP approach....even though it had been improved significantly recently".
you are also right that MYJ did not say anything new in US that CCP has not heard before (though it may be new to US based observers like Carpenter).
MYJ is the 'less evil' for CCP. accepting MYJ as such means CCP know that it has no better alternative.
OTOH, MYJ always need DPP if he is going to any discussion/negotiation with CCP, DPP is his bargaining chip, "yield to my request or you have to deal with these people".
Chinese summary of the Cato essay
连战回大陆：“过气人物•宾至如归”
朱学渊供稿
学渊评：最近连战偕夫人去北京，说自己有“宾至如归”感。说来连战果真有爱国统一之心，十年八年前就应该努力了，就不必今天才说这些“老大徒悲伤”的sorry话儿。对前途有希望的人是不会希罕这种感觉，只有过气失意人物，如杨振宁宋楚瑜才会有的。马英九要能当上台湾总统，下了台也不会去“宾至如归”的；要去，一定是总统落了选。这就是北京的统战成果——“过气人物•宾至如归”。
向国民党示好打错了算盘
【中央社记者林琳纽约十二日专电】美国智库“卡都研究所”（Cato Institute）学者卡本特（Ted GalenCarpenter）指出，中国如果寄望接任陈水扁的台湾总统对两岸统一态度会比较温和，就打错了算盘，因为不论谁担任台湾总统，多数人民绝不会接受台湾与一个共产政权统一。
卡本特发表在华尔街日报的评论指出，北京似乎相信梢园岩磺辛桨都涞奈侍舛脊榫逃诔滤庾芡臣八舻拿窠场Ｋ裕本┗崛戎杂谙蚬竦呈竞茫踔料嘈牛绻懔惆四曜芡炒笱》炊缘呈ぱ。ㄍ宸掷胫饕宓钠栈崧砩舷拧Ｕ庖步馐土巳ツ昵肮竦持飨椒梦蚀舐绞被竦酶吖娓窠哟脑颉Ａ椒梦蚀舐绞痹硎竟竦持铝τ谥占耐骋弧?p> 国民党主席马英九最近访美期间发表和连战类似的言论，也获得北京的称道。马英九不只谈到终极统一，同时也建议两岸达成维持现状的暂时协议，以降低紧张情势。
卡本特指出，中国的领导人在急于接纳马英九之前必须更仔细地检视他的声明。马英九对于接受统一有两项重要的限制性条件。首先，他强调，只有在中国全面民主化的情况下，两岸才可能统一。马英九和多数国民党员都没有兴趣让台湾与现在的独裁中共政权统一。第二点他强调的是，只有在台湾人民明确的表示同意的情况下，才可能进行统一。换句话说，台湾有权否决。马英九谈统一问题时也同意，如果有一天台湾的选民决定想独立，台湾应有权选择独立。
对于北京而言，国民党的前提都是无法接受的。北京的政要无意放弃共产党的一党专政，也不愿让中国转化成西方式的民主。中国的领导人一再强调台湾选民对于是否统一没有否决权。台湾独立在北京看来根本是不合法的，即使这是岛上人民可能有的期望。
评论指出，撇开语言的修饰，马英九实质的立场其实和陈水扁政府追求的方向并没有很大的不同。国民党只是更微妙及婉转用词，且对于可能触怒北京的行动较谨慎。不过，底线是，不论国民党或是民进党执政，统一的可能性都不高，因为台湾是一个民主政体，一切都要尊重人民的意愿。最近台湾的一所研究机构的调查显示，多数回覆民调的人都拒绝接受台湾终究要与中国统一的观念，而且绝大多数相信台湾的政治前途只有台湾的人民才能决定。
卡本特指出，国民党如果要存续，就不能忽视这种观点，而且马英九是被期望赢得二零零八年总统大选的国民党候选人。这也意味着，国民党不可能同意依据北京“一国两制”的模式来谈判统一，尤其这个模式和香港模式并没有太大的不同。问题是，北京方面却期望，如果国民党赢得二零零八年总统大选，就会这么做。
卡本特指出，北京到目前为止对于台湾的问题都归咎于陈总统与民进党，其实是自我欺骗。北京应该明了，其实它是和大多数的台湾人民意见不同。很讽刺的是，二零零八年若国民党胜选，在不能不面对现实的情况下，台海两岸的紧张可能加重而非和缓。
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